JOIN USThe NDA has finally managed to break the unity of the Opposition parties, which had been evident all through the winter session of Parliament and first part of the Budget session. This has implications not just for the passage of the government’s legislative business – and the high profile Insurance Bill is already passed – but also for the country’s electoral politics in the months to come.
For the first time since the Narendra Modi-led BJP came to power, the NDA had found itself cornered in the Rajya Sabha with an otherwise decimated Congress making common cause with regional parties, and suddenly it seemed that political initiative had passed into the hands of the non-NDA parties.
But equally suddenly, the Congress wilted, and broke ranks with the others on the insurance bill which it agreed to pass. Earlier it had held out, saying that it did not want to break the opposition unity that had been forged, even though the insurance bill, allowing for 49 per cent FDI, had been its baby, mooted during UPA regime.
The grapevine has it that the government had come to an understanding with the opposition that it would accept the report of the select committees to which two bills, including the Coal Bill have been referred, and that in turn, the insurance bill, which is a prestige point for the ruling party, would get passed.
Otherwise, it had seemed like an uphill struggle to get the half a dozen ordinances that the government resorted to last December, translated into law, and an impression started to gain ground that the government managers were not up to the challenge of handling Parliament and bring an unyielding opposition around. Opposition parties had refused to play ball in the Upper House where the BJP is way below the majority mark. And it is not going to reach that figure easily, unless it wins all the state elections that are due in 2015 (Bihar), 2016 (West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam), and 2017 (Uttar Pradesh). This is a tall order.
Suddenly an otherwise unyielding prime minister decided to stoop to conquer. He took off for the “Tilak” function of grand-nephew of Mulayam Singh Yadav Tej Pratap Singh in his village Saifai in UP. Not satisfied with attending the pre-marriage ceremony, Modi also attended the wedding ceremony of the grandnephew in Delhi to Lalu Prasad’s daughter. He met Mamata Banerjee in Delhi, with the BJP generally softening its attack on the Trinamool Congress, otherwise on the backfoot in the Sarada chit fund scam.
Earlier, to everyone’s surprise, Modi took off to Baramati, the fiefdom of Sharad Pawar, whose party he had dubbed as the “Naturally Corrupt Party” during the Maharashtra elections not long ago, and spent a whole day looking at the agricultural and educational work done by the Pawar family, and partaking lunch at Pawar’s home. That Pawar played a quiet, behind the scene role in bringing some of the opposition parties around to supporting the insurance bill is acknowledged in Delhi’s political circles.
The NCP’s support to the NDA was evident when the party was not to be seen in the House when the motion of thanks to the President’s address was voted upon, and forcing a vote was a highly unusual development, such an event having occurred only thrice before since Independence. The government had faced the humiliation of having to accept an amendment to the address, which is nothing but an account of all that it has achieved and plans to undertake. The NCP voted for the insurance bill in the Upper House, along with the BJD and the AIDMK.
Soft target
The Congress’ support to the insurance bill coincided with the CBI move to make Manmohan Singh an accused in coalgate, along with the then coal secretary P C Parakh and Kumaramangalam Birla. The Congress rallied behind the former prime minister, known for his financial integrity—even the BJP circles did not gloat over this development– is seen as a. It is being read as a signal that if he can be involved so can others, including the Gandhi family.
The split in the opposition ranks has reopened the possibility of the passage of the more tricky land acquisition bill, which is increasingly becoming a hot potato, agitating the farmers. This does not mean that the Congress will give its support to the bill–even though the government has offered to modify it to accommodate some of the reservations of the non-NDA parties. For it was shaped by none other than Rahul Gandhi himself. But what is to stop other regional parties from walking out or abstaining to facilitate its passage? For once the opposition ranks have fragmented, each party is likely to take a call on what suits it best, rather than moving as a whole, which it was doing earlier.
It was extraordinary that parties which were sworn enemies were fighting on the same side on issues, like the Left and the Trinamool Congress, and the SP and BSP, when earlier they would not be seen on the same page. They are aware that with an ascendant BJP becoming one pole of the polity, a position that the Congress once used to occupy in the country’s political setup, they have no chance unless they swim together. For the saffron party has grown –and threatens to grow at their expense.
The Congress was divided on the issue but more important, it lacks the leadership necessary to take a holistic view on where it is headed, the alliances it must shape in the larger interest. Support or otherwise to one bill has to fit into that larger picture. Moreover, a split in the opposition ranks affects their morale and unity in the state elections due in the coming months.
(The writer is New Delhi-based political commentator)