Number of fliers may double by 2035, says IATA

The number of fliers is likely to double by 2035 to touch 7.2 billion people globally while India may become the third largest aviation market in the next 10 years, IATA said on Tuesday.

However, International Air Transport Association (IATA) warned that increased trade protectionism has the potential to damage growth prospects in civil aviation.

The forecast for passenger growth showed that the biggest driver of demand will be the Asia-Pacific region and it may be the source of more than half the new passengers over the next 20 years.

According to the forecast, China will displace the US as the world’s largest aviation market around 2029 while India will climb the ladder to bag the third place displacing the United Kingdom by 2026. Indonesia would enter the top 10 at the expense of Italy.

The prediction of rise in air travellers from 3.8 billion this year to 7.2 billion in 2035 is based on a 3.7% annual Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR), IATA said.

“People want to fly. Demand for air travel over the next two decades is set to double. Enabling people and nations to trade, explore, and share the benefits of innovation and economic prosperity makes our world a better place,” IATA director general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac said.

Detailing the risks, challenges and opportunities, IATA said that if trade liberalisation gathers pace, demand could even triple the 2015 level. “Conversely, if the current trend towards trade protectionism gathers strength, growth could cool to 2.5% annual CAGR which would see passenger numbers reach 5.8 billion by 2035,” it added.

The IATA chief said though economic growth is the only durable solution for the current economic woes, one sees governments raising barriers to trade rather than making it easier.