Post Bihar, BJP changing Bengal strategy

Modi, Shah to pay more attention in Assam, Odisha

Confident of winning Bihar, the BJP had begun preparations for West Bengal within hours of the last phase of polling in the neighbouring state. The setback on November 8, however, has forced the party to change its tack for Bengal and the process to rethink plans has already begun.

Sources said that although scheduled rallies and meetings by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and national president Amit Shah are still on, involvement in Bengal could be cut down in favour of Assam and Odisha, two states that give the central leadership reasons to be more confident. Shah will kick-start the 2016 poll campaign in Bengal with a mega-rally at Kolkata on November 30 and Modi will follow it up with a dozen meetings across the state from January.

Sources said that while the state BJP could see a change in leadership, the national executive is expected to involve the RSS more. Shah had called state president Rahul Sinha and other senior leaders to Delhi after November 8 and is believed to have briefed them on the changes. Sinha’s removal was being talked about for some time but the process was stalled earlier this year.

Instead of removing Sinha, the national leadership replaced state observer Sidharth Nath Singh with national general secretary, Kailash Vijayvargiya, to streamline the state unit and boost confidence. Although BJP had gained 17 pe rcent vote in Bengal since 2011, a slump was around the corner after poor performance in the May civic polls. Although Singh is still around, Vijayvargiya is believed to be calling the shots.

Sources said that the state unit had a sit-down on November 9 with national general secretary (organisation), Shivprakash, besides Vijayvargiya, Singh, and national secretary, Suresh Pujari, to re-work its Bengal strategy. Buzz is that the state BJP has already worked out a gradation of all 294 constituencies in Bengal and sent a detailed report to Shah with notes on possible winning seats. The report is also believed to have noted how the steady spread till March faced a slowdown in recent months.

The drubbing in Bihar and dissatisfactory performance of programmes like beef ban in Bengal has opened up the leadership to a debate over whether Bengal is the right focus area for now. “The strategy was to pull out all stops in Bengal even if the BJP failed to form the government in Bihar but got around 110 seats. Our presence in Bihar is stronger than in Bengal. If performance there was bad, there’s no chance of cutting it deep here. The Trinamool Congress won’t feel pressure if we don’t win 60-70 seats,” says a state leader.

Noting that at best the BJP can manage only around 20-25 seats in Bengal, a senior leader pointed out that since the party is stuck with just around 60 seats in Bihar, Mamata Banerjee has good reason to smile. Leaders admit that the Bihar setback could make Modi more dependent on Mamata in the Rajya Sabha.  Meanwhile, the Trinamool is happy with the situation and Bihar results are believed to have rekindled Mamata’s plan for a secular third front at the Centre.