<p>When BJP president Amit Shah remained unyielding in favour of Vijay Rupani for the chief ministership of Gujarat, it stunned many, even those within the party. For only a few hours earlier, it seemed clear that Nitin Patel would don the mantle that Anandiben Patel had laid down. Nitin Patel had even accepted people’s congratulations and given interviews to the media. But there was a “method” in Shah’s “madness”. The new chief minister Rupani has been Shah’s and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s man from day one, and would move in step with them in Modi’s home state. <br /><br /></p>.<p>It is an open secret that there was no love lost between Shah and Anandiben. And the BJP chief, it is said, had wanted her replaced. Anandiben, who, according to some, broke down at the meeting where Rupani’s name was finalised, had hinted that it was the people inside the party who tried to destabilise her. <br /><br />Though a confidante of the prime minister who gave her the top job in Gujarat after he moved to Delhi, Anandiben knew her days were numbered. Around six months ago, when she visited Delhi, she had told a group of women journalists that she would not be leading the party in the next elections. After the party lost the civic body elections in rural areas to the Congress last winter (this was preceded by the Patidar rebellion which rocked Gujarat), Anandiben was buying time till this November when she would turn 75, the age when Modi wants BJP leaders to become “margdarshaks”. But the Una incident in which Dalits were thrashed for skinning cows, came as the opportunity the BJP top brass was waiting for.<br /><br />Having promised to deliver his home state to Modi once again, the Gujarat electoral battle has now become Shah’s baby directly, making him that much more accountable. And one of the challenges that the BJP president will face comes from within the party. Anandiben has made it clear that she is not interested in going “anywhere”, but would continue to work in Gujarat. The earlier buzz was that she would be sent as governor to one of the larger states, out of trouble’s way. The BJP cannot forget how the silent rebellion from within cost the party dearly in Delhi and Bihar polls, when the local leadership, not given their due, remained dormant. <br /><br />Apart from being a Shah protégé, Rupani has come through the RSS ranks and was made the Gujarat party chief by Shah, while the other reason for choosing him was his caste-neutral image. The new chief minister is a Jain, a small community in Gujarat, and can be expected to reach out to all castes. Rupani is a man without angularities, known for his skills to take everyone along. He may not create a non-Patel backlash, which the elevation of a Patel might have done, and the BJP will undoubtedly try and woo afresh the OBCs and Dalits, apart from doing damage control amongst the Patidars, though this is not going to be easy. <br /><br />The BJP suffers from a 15-year anti-incumbency in Gujarat and also does not have a Narendra Modi at the helm. The party has been rapidly losing ground. If elections were held today for state Assembly, say many, it may get only 25-40 seats (out of 182). On the other hand, the Congress has been on the upswing, though it does not have a charismatic face to lead the elections, and polls are increasingly becoming presidential in character. Much will also depend on what mistakes the Congress makes between now and December 2017 (when Assembly elections are due), and on how much of a wild card the Aam Aadmi Party, which is seriously eyeing Gujarat, proves to be. <br /><br />What is going for the Shah-Modi-Rupani team is that they are workaholics and 24x7 politicians known for their killer instinct, qualities that the Congress has failed to demonstrate in a sustained manner. And yet, the BJP is on a slippery slope, and has lost the support of three large and politically influential communities: the Patels, around 15% of the population, who stayed by its side since 1995; the Muslims, who have not been with the BJP; and, the Dalits, who constitute 7% (though there are also those who converted to Christianity). A section of the Dalits voted for Modi in the 2012 Assembly elections and in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, and they have often been the front guard of the Hindutva forces in Gujarat. <br /><br />That thousands of protesting Dalits should hit the streets of Ahmedabad after the flogging of youths from the community in Una, had its own story to tell about their disenchantment with the BJP. Modi’s emotional words, “attack me but not my Dalit brothers”, showed how much importance the prime minister attaches to placating the Dalits today. <br /><br />The Patidar problem<br />The BJP leadership hopes to cool the Patel anger by evolving “a middle path” on the reservation issue that has agitated them. It has already appealed to the Supreme Court against the High Court order striking down the state government’s ordinance to give 10% reservation in jobs and educational institutions to the economically weaker sections, as a sop to the Patels. The Gujarat government could look at an economic package for them, if the Supreme Court decides to endorse the lower court’s verdict.<br /> <br />The Patidars are a powerful peasant community but they feel left out in the race for “modern” professions and for the state’s industrialisation. Their unrest points to a deeper crisis afflicting Gujarat today and its “model of development” that was lauded all round in 2014. <br /><br />The Shah-Rupani duo can be expected to drive a wedge in the Patidar movement and wean away those around Hardik Patel. The BJP leadership calculates that ultimately, most Patels would have to return to the BJP fold, for it is not as if the Congress is promising them the moon. For all of Keshubhai Patel’s anger and rebellion against Modi, when push came to shove, the Patels remained by Modi’s side in the 2012 and 2014 elections. The trouble is that 2016 is not 2012 or 2014. <br /><br />Gujarat is a high stake election for the BJP for the simple reason that the prime minister comes from Gujarat. If he loses his own state, his leadership may not remain as invincible as it is today. But much depends on what also happens in Punjab, UP and Uttarakhand, where elections will be held next year before Gujarat. <br /><br />In some ways, it is UP - Modi’s adopted state as he contested from Varanasi – that has become more critical for the BJP’s future trajectory, its position in Parliament and in its preparation for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.<br /><br />BJP strategy to counter perception of being anti-Dalit<br />*Play out PM Narendra Modi's condemnation of attacks on Dalits by fake cow protectors and his statement ‘shoot me, not my Dalit brothers’<br />*Project NDA government's pro-poor Dalit economic empowerment since Modi had earlier urged SC entrepreneurs to become job givers than job seekers. Under “Stand Up” scheme, it is mandatory for each bank to give loan between Rs 10 lakh and Rs 1 crore to at least one Dalit. <br />*Aggressively counter opposition attack on hate crimes against Dalits to minimise its impact ahead of assembly polls in UP, Punjab and Gujarat.<br />*Expose BSP chief Mayawati on plight of Dalits during her tenure as UP CM. BJP charges that Mayawati in her earlier stint as CM had reduced instances of crime <br />covered under Prevention of Atrocities Act against SCs.<br /> <br />Winners’ of Dalits’ trust – BSP? Cong? Left?AAP?<br />*Different regional parties stand to gain political mileage with Congress failing to take the lead nationally on recent bouts of hate crimes against Dalits.<br />For instance: in Uttar Pradesh, BSP seems better positioned to consolidate Jatavs which is the caste of Mayawati since they are the victims of cow vigilantism. She is trying to lure back non-Jatav SCs who had voted for the BJP in UP during the 2014 LS elections.<br />*In Gujarat, the Dalits, who protested public flogging of SC youth in Una by cow protectors, will have no choice but to side with the Congress in the absence of other <br />parties in the fray.<br />*In Punjab, AAP appears to be making a dent into Dalit votes with its pro-poor and anti-corruption politics to unseat SAD-BJP government.<br /><br /><br />(<em>The writer is a political commentator based in New Delhi</em>)<br /><br /><br /></p>
<p>When BJP president Amit Shah remained unyielding in favour of Vijay Rupani for the chief ministership of Gujarat, it stunned many, even those within the party. For only a few hours earlier, it seemed clear that Nitin Patel would don the mantle that Anandiben Patel had laid down. Nitin Patel had even accepted people’s congratulations and given interviews to the media. But there was a “method” in Shah’s “madness”. The new chief minister Rupani has been Shah’s and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s man from day one, and would move in step with them in Modi’s home state. <br /><br /></p>.<p>It is an open secret that there was no love lost between Shah and Anandiben. And the BJP chief, it is said, had wanted her replaced. Anandiben, who, according to some, broke down at the meeting where Rupani’s name was finalised, had hinted that it was the people inside the party who tried to destabilise her. <br /><br />Though a confidante of the prime minister who gave her the top job in Gujarat after he moved to Delhi, Anandiben knew her days were numbered. Around six months ago, when she visited Delhi, she had told a group of women journalists that she would not be leading the party in the next elections. After the party lost the civic body elections in rural areas to the Congress last winter (this was preceded by the Patidar rebellion which rocked Gujarat), Anandiben was buying time till this November when she would turn 75, the age when Modi wants BJP leaders to become “margdarshaks”. But the Una incident in which Dalits were thrashed for skinning cows, came as the opportunity the BJP top brass was waiting for.<br /><br />Having promised to deliver his home state to Modi once again, the Gujarat electoral battle has now become Shah’s baby directly, making him that much more accountable. And one of the challenges that the BJP president will face comes from within the party. Anandiben has made it clear that she is not interested in going “anywhere”, but would continue to work in Gujarat. The earlier buzz was that she would be sent as governor to one of the larger states, out of trouble’s way. The BJP cannot forget how the silent rebellion from within cost the party dearly in Delhi and Bihar polls, when the local leadership, not given their due, remained dormant. <br /><br />Apart from being a Shah protégé, Rupani has come through the RSS ranks and was made the Gujarat party chief by Shah, while the other reason for choosing him was his caste-neutral image. The new chief minister is a Jain, a small community in Gujarat, and can be expected to reach out to all castes. Rupani is a man without angularities, known for his skills to take everyone along. He may not create a non-Patel backlash, which the elevation of a Patel might have done, and the BJP will undoubtedly try and woo afresh the OBCs and Dalits, apart from doing damage control amongst the Patidars, though this is not going to be easy. <br /><br />The BJP suffers from a 15-year anti-incumbency in Gujarat and also does not have a Narendra Modi at the helm. The party has been rapidly losing ground. If elections were held today for state Assembly, say many, it may get only 25-40 seats (out of 182). On the other hand, the Congress has been on the upswing, though it does not have a charismatic face to lead the elections, and polls are increasingly becoming presidential in character. Much will also depend on what mistakes the Congress makes between now and December 2017 (when Assembly elections are due), and on how much of a wild card the Aam Aadmi Party, which is seriously eyeing Gujarat, proves to be. <br /><br />What is going for the Shah-Modi-Rupani team is that they are workaholics and 24x7 politicians known for their killer instinct, qualities that the Congress has failed to demonstrate in a sustained manner. And yet, the BJP is on a slippery slope, and has lost the support of three large and politically influential communities: the Patels, around 15% of the population, who stayed by its side since 1995; the Muslims, who have not been with the BJP; and, the Dalits, who constitute 7% (though there are also those who converted to Christianity). A section of the Dalits voted for Modi in the 2012 Assembly elections and in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, and they have often been the front guard of the Hindutva forces in Gujarat. <br /><br />That thousands of protesting Dalits should hit the streets of Ahmedabad after the flogging of youths from the community in Una, had its own story to tell about their disenchantment with the BJP. Modi’s emotional words, “attack me but not my Dalit brothers”, showed how much importance the prime minister attaches to placating the Dalits today. <br /><br />The Patidar problem<br />The BJP leadership hopes to cool the Patel anger by evolving “a middle path” on the reservation issue that has agitated them. It has already appealed to the Supreme Court against the High Court order striking down the state government’s ordinance to give 10% reservation in jobs and educational institutions to the economically weaker sections, as a sop to the Patels. The Gujarat government could look at an economic package for them, if the Supreme Court decides to endorse the lower court’s verdict.<br /> <br />The Patidars are a powerful peasant community but they feel left out in the race for “modern” professions and for the state’s industrialisation. Their unrest points to a deeper crisis afflicting Gujarat today and its “model of development” that was lauded all round in 2014. <br /><br />The Shah-Rupani duo can be expected to drive a wedge in the Patidar movement and wean away those around Hardik Patel. The BJP leadership calculates that ultimately, most Patels would have to return to the BJP fold, for it is not as if the Congress is promising them the moon. For all of Keshubhai Patel’s anger and rebellion against Modi, when push came to shove, the Patels remained by Modi’s side in the 2012 and 2014 elections. The trouble is that 2016 is not 2012 or 2014. <br /><br />Gujarat is a high stake election for the BJP for the simple reason that the prime minister comes from Gujarat. If he loses his own state, his leadership may not remain as invincible as it is today. But much depends on what also happens in Punjab, UP and Uttarakhand, where elections will be held next year before Gujarat. <br /><br />In some ways, it is UP - Modi’s adopted state as he contested from Varanasi – that has become more critical for the BJP’s future trajectory, its position in Parliament and in its preparation for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.<br /><br />BJP strategy to counter perception of being anti-Dalit<br />*Play out PM Narendra Modi's condemnation of attacks on Dalits by fake cow protectors and his statement ‘shoot me, not my Dalit brothers’<br />*Project NDA government's pro-poor Dalit economic empowerment since Modi had earlier urged SC entrepreneurs to become job givers than job seekers. Under “Stand Up” scheme, it is mandatory for each bank to give loan between Rs 10 lakh and Rs 1 crore to at least one Dalit. <br />*Aggressively counter opposition attack on hate crimes against Dalits to minimise its impact ahead of assembly polls in UP, Punjab and Gujarat.<br />*Expose BSP chief Mayawati on plight of Dalits during her tenure as UP CM. BJP charges that Mayawati in her earlier stint as CM had reduced instances of crime <br />covered under Prevention of Atrocities Act against SCs.<br /> <br />Winners’ of Dalits’ trust – BSP? Cong? Left?AAP?<br />*Different regional parties stand to gain political mileage with Congress failing to take the lead nationally on recent bouts of hate crimes against Dalits.<br />For instance: in Uttar Pradesh, BSP seems better positioned to consolidate Jatavs which is the caste of Mayawati since they are the victims of cow vigilantism. She is trying to lure back non-Jatav SCs who had voted for the BJP in UP during the 2014 LS elections.<br />*In Gujarat, the Dalits, who protested public flogging of SC youth in Una by cow protectors, will have no choice but to side with the Congress in the absence of other <br />parties in the fray.<br />*In Punjab, AAP appears to be making a dent into Dalit votes with its pro-poor and anti-corruption politics to unseat SAD-BJP government.<br /><br /><br />(<em>The writer is a political commentator based in New Delhi</em>)<br /><br /><br /></p>
