Maintain minimum essential diplomatic ties with Pak

The use of state machinery by Pakistan to prevent media from covering the speech of Home Minister Rajnath Singh during the recent Saarc meet held at Islamabad is a new turn in the Indo-Pak relations. Diplomatic courtesies extended to him during his visit to Pakistan also came under the scanner. His visit to Islamabad was preceded by threats of violence by LeT chief Hafiz Saeed and Syed Salahudeen, the chief of Hizbul Mujahideen (HM).

Indian leaders have often used the Saarc platform to condemn terrorism. Rajnath’s condemnation of glorifying the killing of Burhan Wani, the Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist was on the expected line. What are the reasons of Indo-Pak relations going down the spiral and what does future hold? In May 2014, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited India on an invite from Narendra Modi to attend his swearing in ceremony as prime minister. It heralded the beginning of new relations. Later, a meeting held between the two PMs in Ufa, Russia, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit paved the way for the NSA level meeting at Bangkok in December 2015 and resumption of the composite dialogue.

In a surprise move, Modi while returning from Kabul made a stopover at Lahore. He was received by Sharif and Modi visited his residence. The toast of all the positive developments was the return of Geeta who had strayed across and was looked after for 13 years by the Edhi Foundation in Pakistan. Simultaneously, from mid-2015 onwards, there was a spurt in violence across the LoC.

In the Valley, communication networks came under attack from LeT and HM terrorists. Many towers were forced to shut down. Mob violence and stone pelting witnessed a sharp incline.
 On May 21, 2015, LeT terrorists attacked a police station in Kathua and on Jan 21, 2016 they made an attempt to penetrate the Indian Air Force base at Pathankot. These incidents were indicative of the cross-purpose game being played by the Pakistan military and its elected government. Was it a planned strategy to improve its international perception while keeping the pot boiling in J&K making it appear indigenous uprising? There is certainly a case to believe this as the US had stopped most of its aids on account of Pakistan’s inaction against the banned terrorist organisations.

There is a perceptible shift in the international power play. Russia under Putin has become assertive and the relations between Russia and China are going steady. The rise of China as a major power and its expansionist approach in South China Sea and the Indian Ocean has made Asia as the likely future conflict zone. China is continuing to provide military hardware to Pakistan and is aggressively pursuing to build its land corridor linking Xinjiang Region to Pakistan through PoK.New Delhi sees it as an attempt by China to build up Pakistan as a countervailing state against India.

 In response, India has switched its strategy from “Look East” to “Act East”. India’s signing of “Joint Strategic Vision” with the US for security in Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean regions seems to have hackled China. Connecting the dots - the visit of Pakistan Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif to China in May 2016, summoning of Pakistan’s cabinet to Pak Army Headquarters in June 2016, surge in terrorist violence in the Valley and blocking of Rajnath Singh’s speech from the media - make the China-Pakistan strategy clear. China, through its ally, wants to checkmate India’s propulsion into the international arena. The veto used by China to prevent inclusion of JeM chief Masood Azar, the master mind of the Pathankot attack, in the UN list of banned terrorists and blocking India’s bid for entry into the Nuclear Supply Group are facets of the same strategy.

Amid the ongoing international power play, in the near future, Pakistan is unlikely to shift from its policy of state-sponsored terrorism against India and Bangladesh. Undoubtedly, there is a segment of population in Pakistan that wants peace with India but it is appallingly small. They continue to be ineffective against the dominance of Pakistan military in the affairs of the state.

The rise of Islamic terrorist organisations in Pakistan which are a state within a state have further compounded the problem. The recent statement by HM chief Syed Salahudeen that India and Pakistan are on the cusp of another war which could involve nuclear exchange is a case in point.

Don’t appease

In these circumstances, the way forward is to maintain minimum essential diplomatic relations with Pakistan and strong defence force as a deterrent to any misdemeanour by our neighbours. Avoid spending too much energy to appease Pakistan for peace and wait for an appropriate time to pick up the threads. Pursue our policy of ‘Act East’ with vigour and energy. Simultaneously, look inward to calm the situation in J&K.

We must reiterate with candour to both the internal and external constituencies that J&K is an integral part of India which is inviolable. Send an unambiguous message to the separatists and the masses in the Valley that violence is not the way forward. J&K CM Mehbooba Mufti must convey to the people that peace alone can open the gateway for dialogue and economic developments. The debatable point is that was the visit of our home minister to Islamabad justified? Saarc remains the troubled child of the region.