Weather models hint at weak rainfall season

Weather models hint at weak rainfall season

Weather models hint at weak rainfall season

After adversely impacting the southwest monsoon in 2014 and 2015, weather models indicate the resurfacing of El Nino, private weather forecasting agency Skymet on Sunday claimed, sparking fears of a weak rainfall season ahead.

Jatin Singh, CEO of Skymet, said that usually an El Nino is followed by La Nina that is invariably related with good monsoon rains. La Nina, which is currently on, is associated with the cooling of Pacific waters. El Nino is associated with the warming of Pacific waters.

In December, all weather models were suggesting that weak La Nina conditions will continue during early 2017 and by April or May, neutral conditions may develop. Going by this prediction, India in 2017 will witness either a normal monsoon or above normal rains.

Weather models hinted that  by mid-January, there is a possibility of El Nino resurfacing. As per this outlook for El Nino, the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to increase in a span of six months, Singh said.

However, contrary to El-Nino conditions, there is another factor that influences the performance of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which plays a vital role in southwest monsoon.

According to meteorologists, the positive IOD is linked with good monsoon rains, while the negative IOD has adverse effect on the same.

Singh said, as of now, weather models are suggesting that IOD may remain positive during the upcoming monsoon season.

‘Wait and watch’
“But we have to wait and watch as to what extent the IOD will be able to neutralise the effect of the evolving El Nino,” he said, adding that the models indicate the East Pacific waters are cold, but the West Pacific waters have shown a slight warming.

However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said it is too early to comment on the occurrence of El Nino.