Higher monsoon rain than forecast likely, says IMD

India looks likely to receive higher monsoon rainfall than previously forecast as concern over the El Nino weather condition has eased, the chief of the weather office said on Tuesday, raising prospects of higher farm and economic growth.

The India Meteorological Department on April 18 forecast this year's monsoon rains at 96 % of the 50-year average of 89 cm.  “Things have changed for the good since then,” said K J Ramesh, director general of India Meteorological Department. 

“We assessed 96 % based on the climatological conditions up to March. Now, conditions are becoming favourable for an improvement over April 18 estimate,” Ramesh said.  Australia's Bureau of Meteorology recently said there were signs of concerns easing over El Nino.

The establishment phase of the monsoon north of the equator has already started, and the Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon — which counters the impact of an El Nino — will have an incremental positive effect on the Indian monsoon, Ramesh said.

Pre-monsoon showers have already hit certain dry areas in the southern part of the country, he said, bringing much needed relief to farmers ahead of the start of the four-month monsoon season beginning June.

New prediction model

Jettisoning a statistical method introduced under British colonial rule in the 1920s, the India Meteorology Department has for the first time relied on the so-called dynamic model to improve the accuracy of one of the world’s most vital weather forecasts.