JOIN USThe massive mandate that Hassan Rouhani won in the Iranian presidential election will strengthen
his hand in persisting with reforms he introduced in his first term as Iran’s president. A moderate cleric, incumbent Rouhani was pitted against hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, who was reportedly backed by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Through much of the election campaign it did seem that Raisi, a conservative cleric, would defeat Rouhani. Raisi’s campaign, which focused on a mix of religious conservatism, economic populism and an isolationist foreign policy, seemed to appeal to the Iranian masses and also consolidate support across a broad spectrum of Iranian society. Surveys projected a victory for Raisi. However, Rouhani’s achievements as president - Iran’s economic growth and inflation, which stood at minus 5.4% and 44%, respectively, at the start of his presidency were 5.8% and 9% in 2016 and his decision to sign a nuclear agreement with world powers resulted in the lifting of crippling economic sanctions – drew in the votes. Moderates anxious to protect these gains turned out in large numbers to ensure Rouhani’s return. What makes Rouhani’s win all the more emphatic is that it came on the back of 70% voter turnout.
However, Rouhani’s second term is unlikely to be easy. His supporters will expect him to deliver on his pledge to ensure personal freedoms and civil rights of Iranians. He will have to battle hard to secure these. While Raisi’s defeat is a setback to conservative forces, the latter are far from finished. In fact, his defeat is likely to spur them to mobilise with greater energy. Although Khamenei is Supreme Leader for life, he is said to be in very poor health. So an important battle between conservatives and reformists over the choice of the next Supreme Leader looms. Yet another hardline Supreme Leader would restrict Rouhani’s efforts to reform Iran.
The little elbow room Rouhani has to pursue reforms will be determined significantly by the economy’s performance and should US President Donald Trump, on the prodding of Israel and Saudi Arabia, decide to tighten economic sanctions on Iran, it would impact Iran’s economic growth adversely. Unlike his predecessor Barack Obama, Trump will discourage Americans from investing in Iran. In an early sign of renewed bellicosity towards Iran, Trump has signed a $100 billion arms deal with the Saudis. Such moves by the Trump administration would provide Iranian conservatives with ample ammunition to target Rouhani’s policies. They will use this to incite anger and violent unrest. Rouhani's second term can be expected to be far more challenging than the first.