JOIN USCong, BJP reject 'also ran' tag
No party wants rebellion due to unfair selection that may turn an already unpredictable poll situation more complicated. The scramble for tickets of Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) is, of course, in Lucknow where the Czarina of the party is the sole arbiter of ticket distribution.
The electoral fight for 403 assembly seats in an un-wielding state like Uttar Pradesh is wide open though some observers have declared that the main contestants could be the BSP and the SP with others playing the role of ‘also ran’. This quick reduction of the poll canvas is unacceptable to Congress and BJP leaders, who claim they could surprise the regional parties.
For many decades SP and BSP have successfully smashed Congress hold over Scheduled Caste, backward and muslims voters. Muslims have shunned Congress since the Babri mosque demolition in 1992. Congress won only 22 seats in the last assembly elections in UP but unexpectedly improved its performance in 2009 general elections by capturing 21 Lok Sabha seats which make for 95 assembly segments. This gain, so far, does not seem to be translating on the ground .
Generational change must
The BJP has failed to project a single young face on the campaign trail. The ageing leaders - Rajnath Singh, Kalraj Mishra, Lalji Tandon - have confused voters who may be empathising with the party. Brahmin voters who had in 2007, shifted loyalty to BSP, have difficulty in making a choice in the BJP. “There are three faces - Brahma, Vishnu, Mahesh. We are multi-talented,” says a senior BJP leader from UP wryly and gives a hearty laugh when asked whether these three leaders could make ‘a three-fold increase’ in BJP’s tally .
In 2007, BJP won 51 assembly seats (32 less than previous assembly polls) as against 206 (BSP), 97 (SP), 22 (Cong) and 10 (RLD). As against Congress’ 21 Lok Sabha seats from UP, the BJP scored only 10 in 2009 general elections.
Former BJP general secretary Sanjay Joshi, who does not see eye-to-eye with Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi (with whom he has old scores to settle), has been brought to UP to strike a coordination between warring state leaders and state president Surya Pratap Shahi. Unlike Congress youth leader Rahul Gandhi, his cousin in BJP Varun Gandhi has not been brought to the centre stage in the UP poll campaign. “We must have a generational change like the Congress in a politically crucial state like UP,” said a central office bearer.
Congress is hopeful that its poll-deal with the RLD could change the theatre of UP politics. The poll pact, however, would impact only 45 assembly seats in western UP. “It will be a game changer,” says Congress ticket screening committee chairman Mohan Prakash,about the pre-poll alliance with RLD having dominance in the western Jat belt.
Congress general secretary in charge of UP, Digvijay Singh, also exudes confidence saying, “everyone will be surprised with the performance of this alliance.”
Badrinarayan, Professor at GB Pant Social Science Institute in Allahabad, does not agree though he opined that the alliance will help both the parties increase their seat tally. “I will not say that this alliance will be a game changer because they can’t form the government. However, this alliance will attract the anti-jaat mobilisation in the region, which may help them in winning more seats than in 2007,” Badrinarayan analyses.
The Jat community, the main vote base of RLD in sugarcane belt of western UP, constitutes 2.5 per cent of state population and accounts for 15-25 per cent votes in 40 Assembly constituencies. This is where this alliance seems to make an impact.
In 2007, with 3.7 per cent vote share, RLD had won 10 out of 254 seats it contested. This time there can be slight increase as Congress votes will shift to this alliance.
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