Will Mamata be able to retain her Muslim vote base with ISF, AIMIM in fray?

Comprising almost 30 per cent of the total population in the state, Muslim voters have always been a key political factor in West Bengal. Since the 2011 Assembly elections when the Trinamool Congress (TMC) came to power for the first time, they have firmly backed the party. But at that time, there were no outfits like the recently formed Indian Secular Front (ISF) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) which could have potentially challenged TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee’s hold on the Muslim community.

Political equations started to change in Bengal ahead of the Assembly elections with the emergence of the ISF, founded by influential Muslim cleric Abbas Siddiqui. His influence on the minority community, especially in the districts of South Bengal, and the prospect of making a dent into the TMC’s minority vote base has become evident with Mamata persistently attacking him as a “BJP agent”.

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Muslim votes are a significant factor in 125 out of the 294 Assembly seats in Bengal. The results of the last Assembly and Lok Sabha elections in the state clearly show why Mamata is eager to retain her Muslim support base. The TMC in the 2016 Assembly elections won 85 out of the 125 minority-influenced seats, while in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, despite BJP’s rise in the state, it led in 98 such Assembly seats and polled 46.90 per cent votes.

The reason why Mamata seemed worried by the ISF is mainly because of Siddiqui’s influence among the Muslim population in TMC’s bastion in South 24 Paraganas district. The TMC led in all 31 seats of the district in the last Lok Sabha elections but the ISF, capitalising on Siddiqui’s influence, may eat into its Muslim vote bank.

This may result into either the ISF directly wresting the seats from the TMC or creating a division in minority votes which will benefit the BJP. A third effect of the ISF may also be a consolidation of Hindu votes in BJP’s favour.

The alleged corrupt practices by a section of TMC leaders related to aids during cyclone Amphan is an added advantage to the ISF. There is considerable discontent against the TMC even among minority voters in areas affected by the cyclone.

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“The BJP and the TMC have a covert understanding. It will be a three-way fight in Bengal,” said ISF chairman Naushad Siddiqui.

The AIMIM, which has fielded candidates in 13 seats in the minority-dominated Murshidabad district, may spoil TMC’s effort to make further inroads into the Congress bastion.

TMC sources said that the party is seeking to counter the ISF and AIMIM by deploying its own minority leader and labeling the two “agents of the BJP”.

“Considering Mamata Banerjee's reactions the, TMC is worried that if its Muslim vote base splits, it will be difficult for it to return to power. Compared to TMC's pitch following the death of four in Cooch Behar by firing of the Central forces (incidentally from the minority community), the response of the Left and Congress has been less intense. This may consolidate minority votes in its favour,” said author and political analyst Signdhendu Bhattacharya.