Tripling renewables by 2030 remains distant goal 2 years after COP28, says report

New Delhi: National targets have barely made progress two years after countries agreed to tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030, with the total global ambition increasing by just 2 per cent since the pledge, according to a new analysis published on Thursday.

The analysis by energy think tank Ember warned that this gap between global ambition and national planning risks undermining climate progress as well as the energy security and economic resilience of countries.

According to the tripling goal, a commitment made at COP28 in UAE in 2023, the countries need to increase combined energy generation capacity through renewable means by a factor of three by 2030.

The report said that national renewable energy targets now add up to 7.4 terawatts (TW) for 2030, just over double the 3.4 TW installed in 2022. This still falls significantly short of the 11 TW needed to meet the tripling goal.

"Tripling global renewable capacity is the biggest action the world can take for climate this decade. Yet, despite the landmark COP28 agreement, national targets remain largely unchanged and fall short of what is needed," the report said.

Katye Altieri, Global Electricity Analyst at Ember, said, "The purpose of a national renewables target is less-so to force more renewables to be built, but rather to make sure they are built smarter. It can help the government plan for the best place to build renewables and plan for grid and flexibility to integrate the renewables, and also to help companies invest in supply chains, making for a cheaper and more secure electricity system." The report said that only 22 countries have updated their 2030 targets since COP28, most of them in the European Union.

Outside the EU, only seven countries, including Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea, the UK and Vietnam, revised their targets, with five increasing ambition and two lowering it.

These updates were mostly part of routine planning cycles, not a direct response to the global agreement made at the UN climate conference or COP28 in Dubai in 2023, it said.

Among the world's top 20 electricity producers, nine have yet to update their targets.

The US has no national 2030 renewable energy target and is not expected to set one in the near future following recent policy rollbacks. Russia also has no target and is unlikely to announce one. China and South Africa are in the process of updating their plans, while India's 500 GW target remains unchanged but already aligns with the tripling goal.

Ember said the lack of ambition could derail efforts to meet climate goals.

"Without near-term action to raise national ambition, the world risks missing a critical opportunity to keep the 1.5 degree Celsius pathway within reach," the report warned.

The findings come as countries prepare for COP30 at Belem in Brazil, where they will be urged to align national commitments with the global tripling pledge to fast-track clean energy investment and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.