Challenges yes but BJP quick on course correction

BJP’s silent blessing to LJP’s rebel leader Pashupati Kumar Paras, who effected a rebellion in the party replacing Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan’s son Chirag, did not go unnoticed this week. Neither was its decision to fire its MLC Tunna Pandey after he raised questions on the functioning of Nitish Kumar.

Clearly, it read the writing on the wall - its most productive ally in Bihar is Nitish’s Janata Dal(United) and it needs to be kept in good humour if the NDA has to do well in 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This, even as LJP helped the BJP emerge as the single largest party in Bihar by substantially damaging the JD(U).

In 2019 general elections, BJP stooped to conquer and agreed to a 50:50 formula of seat distribution with JD(U), which had won just two Lok Sabha seats in Bihar in 2014 as against 22 of BJP. The gambit played off with NDA winning 39 (BJP-17, JD(U)-16 and LJP-06) out of 40 in 2019 general elections.

Nitish Kumar had walked out of NDA in 2013 in protest against Narendra Modi’s elevation as prime ministerial candidate and handed out a crushing defeat to NDA in 2015 state polls by aligning with RJD and Congress. But BJP weaned him away in 2017, knowing well it has no future on its own in Bihar. BJP has shown signs of political pragmatism and came up with surprises and compromises to keep the party on the winning electoral trajectory umpteen times.

Read: Tensions within BJP prompt troubleshooting

Unlike in the Opposition Congress, where problems were allowed to fester for years till it led to amputation of party state units and its once time strategist and winners turning rebels, BJP has been quick to make amends.

As criticism mounted on UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s handling of the pandemic as well as his relations with politicians within his own party and handling of the allies, the BJP central leadership kept a watch. As soon as panchayat poll results showed the party losing even in its Hindutva strongholds like Varanasi, Ayodhya, Mathura as well as CM’s home district Gorakhpur, the central leadership got back to drawing board to plan next strategy.

While a larger role in UP BJP was pitched for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s aide and a former Gujarat cadre IAS officer Arvind Kumar Sharma, top BJP and RSS leadership got into a back to back huddle starting with a meeting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with BJP’s organisation in-charge for UP Sunil Bansal and RSS general secretary Dattatreya Hosabale on May 24. Hosabale and BJP general secretary B L Santosh later held meetings in UP with organisation workers and BJP MLAs, and brokered peace. While Adityanath continued as CM face, strategy for UP poll was back to BJP’s central leadership. The “rift” between the PM and the CM was addressed.

Shah, who had monitored UP in past, held meetings with previous and prospective allies from the influential Kurmi and Nishad caste groups to put the social engineering back ahead of polls. This happened as BJP realised that the rupture in its social coalition in the state in the last few years could damage its prospects in the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats, crucial to party’s victory in next general election.

The BJP has been conscious of the developments even in small states. As soon as West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s one time close aide Mukul Roy was back to the parent party this month after a three and half-year stint with the BJP, Banerjee deployed him to get back Tripura’s TMC leaders, who had migrated to BJP in 2017. After their defection, the BJP had won the Left bastion the next year. The ruling party sensed the problem quickly and rushed Santhosh and Northeast zonal secretary Ajay Jamwal to Tripura to resolve the friction between CM Biplab Deb and dissenting MLAs led by Sudip Roy Barman.

No fuss

In Assam, the party chose to go to polls this year without a CM face as the rivalry between incumbent Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma threatened to cast a shadow on its poll performance. Post victory, it effected a leadership change without a fuss, handing over the CMship to Sarma and promising a significant role to Sonowal. In Uttarakhand also, CM Trivendra Singh Rawat was replaced after criticism over his handling of Covid-19, flood etc.

In contrast, Congress failed to maintain power balance in Madhya Pradesh. It lost the state it had won after 15 years in less than one and half year as Jyotiraditya Scindia, one of the triumvirate of MP Congress, moved to the BJP with his supporters. In the Congress-ruled Punjab and Rajasthan, the bickering has continued for years. In Punjab, which goes to polls next year, Congress is beset with factional politics.

Also read: Polls and performance to guide imminent Cabinet reshuffle of Modi government

While the aura of invincibility of the Modi-Shah duo has gone away after recent state polls, BJP has been found fighting aggressively in even those elections it seemed poised to lose --be it West Bengal this year or Delhi in 2020 and Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in 2018. This kept their cadre energised and also got the party an outcome better than its strength.

When BJP’s experiment of non-tribal leader in Jharkhand Raghubar Das failed in 2019, it quickly got back its tribal face and the state’s first Chief Minister of the state Babulal Marandi in its fold. In Haryana, it made the first move to stitch a post-poll alliance with bitter rival Jananayak Janata Party headed by Dushyant Chautala and ensured a second term for the Manoharlal Khattar government.

After struggling to form a government in Gujarat in 2017 because as it got only 99 seats out of total 200, BJP did not waste time. It weaned away Alpesh Thakor, one of three young leaders, who had contributed to Congress’s rise and poached other Congress leaders as well. Congress, which had 77 MLAs then, is now reduced to 65 while BJP’s rose from 99 to 112.

The party organisation does not sit quiet after victory or defeat in polls. Soon after the Bihar victory last year, BJP chief J P Nadda chalked out a 100-day ‘Rashtriya Vistrit Pravas’ throughout the country with particular focus on UP where polls were due in 2022. After losing West Bengal, BJP planned a massive rural outreach programme in 1 lakh villages on May 30 to coincide with completion of seven years of Modi government.

While the saffron party has faced allegations from the Opposition of “brazen use of money power” and “misuse of Central agencies” in its power pursuit, a close look at BJP’s political moves shows the story is not just about poaching; it is also about attempting to nip trouble in the bud.