China's rise adds complexity, hampers India's efforts to be natural lead for Global South: COAS

New Delhi: The rise of China as a dominant economic and strategic force adds complexity, creates competition, and "hampers" India's efforts to be a natural leader for the Global South, Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi said on Sunday.

Delivering the Gen Bipin Rawat memorial lecture in Delhi, he also said that in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's clarion call for 'Viksit Bharat 2047', lies an "opportunity for us to seek our rightful place in the emerging global security scenario".

In his address, the Army chief also made a veiled reference to the proximity between China and Pakistan, and said that today the "near absolute collusivity" has "further compounded the threat".

On March 8, Gen Dwivedi, in a veiled reference to China and Pakistan, had said there is a "high degree of collusivity," which must be accepted.

"What it means, as far as I am concerned, is that the two-front threat is a reality," he had said in response to a question on the proximity between China and Pakistan.

In his lecture on Sunday, Gen Dwivedi said, "While the nation works along multiple lines of efforts, we need to be mindful that in the security vertical, it is very easy to be drawn to the Thucydides trap." According to experts, this trap refers to a rising power threatening to displace a major power.

"Can we as a nation with compelling requirements in the social sector afford to be drawn into this trap? At the same time, can we overlook the fact that we live in an extremely volatile neighbourhood? "As Gen Rawat said when you have unsettled borders to your north and west, you don't know which side the battle will commence and where it will end. So, you should be prepared for both fronts. Today, the near absolute collusivity has further compounded the threat," he said.

General Dwivedi said that while looking for strategic guidance for solutions in the military field, "my thoughts gravitate towards his (Gen Rawat's) thoughts".

The Army chief described India's first CDS, who died in a chopper crash in 2021, as a scholar soldier and a military reformer who had an exceptional ability to envision the future.

In 2025, the world is just cooling down from two major conflicts -- in Ukraine and Gaza -- where the majority of the nations took sides, a few based on realism, a few based on idealism, and a selective few based on religion, he said.

"The turmoil is also interspersed with a number of ongoing sub-national conflicts and certain common threats to global peace which is increasingly challenged by terrorism, radicalisation, mass cyber attacks, and a certain shift from democracy to authoritarianism," he said.

In his address, the Army chief said, "If you look at friction points visible on the horizon, we find China challenging the established rules-based system, exemplified by its Belt and Road Initiative investment across Asia, Africa, and Europe.

"The US, reinforcing alliances like AUKUS and Quad, and promoting a free Indo-Pacific, Europe navigating a delicate path, striving to maintain its principle of human rights while engaging with China and the US concurrently, but they are not sure how to deal with Russia now." He spoke of Africa that is rising, and the Global South which is increasingly voicing its demands for a "multipolar world that reflects diverse interests".

While describing the way India is poised in this emerging world order, Gen Dwivedi also said, "The rise of China as a dominant economic and strategic force also adds complexity, creates competition and hampers India's efforts to be the natural lead for the Global South".

The Army chief underlined that when it comes to security, "doing more and doing better is no longer enough." "We need to do things differently and that means, thinking differently. Enhancing security today requires reimagining," he said.

On India's posture amid changing global dynamics, he said the policy of non-alignment has evolved into a strategy of multi-alignment.

India's international posture is now more "dynamic and assertive", acknowledging not only its growing capability but also the expectations the world has of it, the Army chief said.

Citing Prime Minister Modi's clarion call for Viksit Bharat 2047, he said, "Herein lies an opportunity for us to seek our rightful place in the emerging global security scenario." "We understand that security is about wholesome capability to wage war and deter war," General Dwivedi said.

He emphasised that it is DIME-T (Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic, and Technology) deterrence, "we are talking about and not military deterrence alone".

Towards that end, healthy military-civil fusion, Aatmanirbhar defence industrial base, dual-use assets at the national level, well-informed and empowered decision-makers of DIME framework, and an inclusive approach for citizen warriors play a pivotal role, he said.

"To further add to the traditional deterrence, I believe that technology prowess probably has become the new currency of deterrence. Data has become the new capital of trade and security," the Army chief said.

He also said the increased militarisation of space, again led by China, increases orbital debris risk.