<p>Bengaluru: The recent changes to the H-1B visa policy will have a limited but measurable impact on remittances from Indians working in the United States, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said, estimating the hit to be within $5 billion in FY26.</p><p>Under the base scenario, net remittances are expected to decline by around $2.8 billion, or 0.07% of GDP, the agency noted. “However, if there is a sharper drop of 50% in visa issuances, net remittances could fall by $4.5 billion in FY26 compared to Business-As-Usual (BAU) projections — about 0.11% of GDP. Conversely, if the decline is milder, the reduction would be $2 billion, or 0.05% of GDP,” Ind-Ra stated.</p><p>Remittances — personal transfers by Indians abroad to their families back home — reached $124.6 billion in FY25, more than doubling from $66.3 billion in FY15. Since 2008, India has consistently topped the World Bank’s list of remittance recipient countries.</p><p>These inflows have also become a key buffer for India’s external finances, especially during periods of volatile foreign investment. Between FY20 and FY25, remittances financed 48.2% of India’s goods trade deficit, compared with 44.6% in FY14–FY19. During the external deficit crisis of FY12–FY13, when high oil prices widened the trade gap, net remittances covered only about a third of the deficit — underscoring their critical role in stabilising India’s external balance, the agency said.</p>.'Would not be possible without immigration', says CEO Jensen Huang; Nvidia to continue sponsoring H-1B visas: Report.<p>Last month, US President Donald Trump signed an order imposing a $100,000 annual fee on H-1B visa applications. Major users of the visa programme include Amazon (10,044 workers), TCS (5,505), Microsoft (5,189), Meta (5,123), Apple (4,202) and Google (4,181).</p><p>According to Ind-Ra, H-1B visa issuances were steady at around 1,80,000 during FY16–FY19, before dropping to a multi-decade low of 61,569 in FY21. Issuances later rebounded to reach a record high in FY23. India’s share of total issuances has steadily risen from 37–56% in the early 2000s to an average of 77.2% during FY20–FY23, though it slipped to a decadal low of 68.6% in FY24, signalling a potential shift in allocation patterns.</p><p>“The new H-1B visa and remittance tax policies have amplified uncertainty and affected global economic sentiment since April 2025. This could widen India’s current account deficit by 0.1% of GDP in a pessimistic scenario,” said Paras Jasrai, Associate Director and Economist at Ind-Ra.</p><p>The agency projected net remittances to grow 8% year-on-year to $134.6 billion in FY26 under the base case. However, if visa issuances fall sharply, growth could slow to 6.7%, with further moderation to around 5% in FY27 — about half the compound annual growth rate seen during FY20–FY25.</p>
<p>Bengaluru: The recent changes to the H-1B visa policy will have a limited but measurable impact on remittances from Indians working in the United States, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said, estimating the hit to be within $5 billion in FY26.</p><p>Under the base scenario, net remittances are expected to decline by around $2.8 billion, or 0.07% of GDP, the agency noted. “However, if there is a sharper drop of 50% in visa issuances, net remittances could fall by $4.5 billion in FY26 compared to Business-As-Usual (BAU) projections — about 0.11% of GDP. Conversely, if the decline is milder, the reduction would be $2 billion, or 0.05% of GDP,” Ind-Ra stated.</p><p>Remittances — personal transfers by Indians abroad to their families back home — reached $124.6 billion in FY25, more than doubling from $66.3 billion in FY15. Since 2008, India has consistently topped the World Bank’s list of remittance recipient countries.</p><p>These inflows have also become a key buffer for India’s external finances, especially during periods of volatile foreign investment. Between FY20 and FY25, remittances financed 48.2% of India’s goods trade deficit, compared with 44.6% in FY14–FY19. During the external deficit crisis of FY12–FY13, when high oil prices widened the trade gap, net remittances covered only about a third of the deficit — underscoring their critical role in stabilising India’s external balance, the agency said.</p>.'Would not be possible without immigration', says CEO Jensen Huang; Nvidia to continue sponsoring H-1B visas: Report.<p>Last month, US President Donald Trump signed an order imposing a $100,000 annual fee on H-1B visa applications. Major users of the visa programme include Amazon (10,044 workers), TCS (5,505), Microsoft (5,189), Meta (5,123), Apple (4,202) and Google (4,181).</p><p>According to Ind-Ra, H-1B visa issuances were steady at around 1,80,000 during FY16–FY19, before dropping to a multi-decade low of 61,569 in FY21. Issuances later rebounded to reach a record high in FY23. India’s share of total issuances has steadily risen from 37–56% in the early 2000s to an average of 77.2% during FY20–FY23, though it slipped to a decadal low of 68.6% in FY24, signalling a potential shift in allocation patterns.</p><p>“The new H-1B visa and remittance tax policies have amplified uncertainty and affected global economic sentiment since April 2025. This could widen India’s current account deficit by 0.1% of GDP in a pessimistic scenario,” said Paras Jasrai, Associate Director and Economist at Ind-Ra.</p><p>The agency projected net remittances to grow 8% year-on-year to $134.6 billion in FY26 under the base case. However, if visa issuances fall sharply, growth could slow to 6.7%, with further moderation to around 5% in FY27 — about half the compound annual growth rate seen during FY20–FY25.</p>