Opposition’s strategic vacuum: What worked before won’t work again

During the last week of the recently concluded Parliament session, Rahul Gandhi lamented before the media about the poor affairs of the Parliament and the Speaker. For many, it was a déjà vu moment, echoing Marshall Goldsmith’s famous line: “What got you here won’t get you there!” To paraphrase for India’s Opposition, ”What worked before won’t work henceforth!”

Even after 11 years out of power, the Opposition seems not to have learned any strategic lessons. They continue with disparate tactics lacking cohesion. As The Art of War warns, tactic without strategy is the noise before defeat. What else explains the BJP’s enduring dominance despite socio-economic setbacks and policy criticism? The opposition’s failure to mount an effective challenge — nationally and in the states — points to a lack of strategic thinking. Or does it?

Perhaps the following factors contribute to this situation:

Fragmented ideology: The biggest hurdle to a unified opposition is the ideological diversity among the various parties. The I.N.D.I.A bloc, formed in 2023 with 23 parties, was intended as a united front against the BJP. But internal disagreements, state-level rivalries, leadership tussles, intra-party groupism, and conflicting policy priorities undermined its purpose. The biggest point of contention was the Congress party’s historical dominance with the Gandhi family leadership. Allegations of the Lutyens’ elitism, minority appeasement, and nepotism further weakened the alliance, which lacked unity in both strategy and ideology. Meanwhile, the BJP’s narrative remained focused and cohesive.

Narrative control: The ruling party’s strategies have astutely understood the media’s power in shaping public opinion — and, as critics point out, have mastered narrative control. Mainstream media outlets have increasingly displayed bias in favour of the ruling party, especially during elections, when Opposition voices were either sidelined or relegated to inside pages. Unlike the pre-2014 era, Opposition dissent has rarely received prominent coverage in the past decade — and, when it has, it was often with a dismissive tone. The consolidation of media ownership among pro-government oligarchs has further constrained the opposition’s ability to communicate its message. The dominance of pro-government narratives has marginalised alternative perspectives, prompting the popular question, “What’s the alternative?”

Alleged institutional bias: The opposition has raised several concerns about the neutrality of key institutions, including the judiciary and investigative agencies like the CBI and the ED. These bodies are alleged to have targeted opposition netas — until they fall in line. Several international publications have highlighted how some politicians facing corruption charges received legal reprieves upon joining the BJP. Such practices have fostered a perception of democratic erosion and diminished public trust in institutions.

Electoral challenges: The BJP has long been adept at throwing barbs at Opposition parties to deride their strategic focus. This resulted in reactive electoral strategies from the Opposition. The BJP’s organisational machinery, its effective use of social media, and its grassroots mobilisation have consistently outpaced its rivals. Further, financial dominance — enabled by electoral bonds and other resources — has given the party unmatched campaigning reach, often overshadowing Opposition efforts. The vote share arithmetic didn’t work because of the lack of a unified and compelling vision.

Hindutva’s influence: The BJP’s ideology of Hindu nationalism appears to have significantly reshaped India’s political discourse. The perception of this narrative as a majoritarian preference has led some Opposition parties to mimic this rhetoric to stay electorally relevant. With this blurring of ideological differentiation, wouldn’t the viable alternative question remain?

To mount a credible challenge in the 2029 elections, the Opposition must begin a strategic overhaul now — not at the end of 2028. Key priorities should include:

A unified ideological vision: No alliance can succeed without a cohesive ideological framework. Thinking otherwise is wishful. The Opposition must offer a strong counter-narrative to the BJP — not one that is merely anti-Modi but rooted in policies addressing income disparities, social justice, and secularism.

Grassroots mobilisation: What the CPM once possessed, the BJP now owns: a strong grassroots presence. The Opposition must consistently engage local communities across India — not through the fanfare of a Bharat Jodo Yatra but through relevant policy outreach. Local leadership must be empowered to drive this process.

Internal democracy and leadership: The primary agenda must be addressing issues such as nepotism, groupism, and transparency within. Demand genuine internal democracy to enhance credibility and attract public support. Give young and clean leaders who work at the grassroots the chance to shine in policymaking and responsible leadership roles.

A robust communication plan: Effective communication to reach the electorate may need creating independent media platforms and leveraging digital media. Invest to counter misinformation and present factual narratives. Train spokespersons and leaders in media engagement.

Institutional integrity: Advocate for the independence of democratic institutions and the rule of law. Become the champions to bring reforms that ensure the impartiality of investigative agencies and the judiciary.

Address socio-economic issues: Push for comprehensive policy solutions to pressing issues such as unemployment, education, healthcare, and economic disparity. Consistently driving this from now onwards will persuade the electorate to see a viable alternative. Involve experts, stakeholders, and the public to formulate policies like the Congress’ initiative in some states. Stop being timid or playing the victim card; see it through to the end even if it means taking to the streets.

(The writer is a co-founder of the non-profit Medici Institute for Innovation)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.