Restore status-quo ante to resolve impasse

Needless to say, the India-China relations are at crossroads today. The situation at present has become diametrically opposite from a position where India and China were planning to conduct 70 events to celebrate the 70th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations between them, to a situation where both countries are staring down at each other.

This change has been brought about by China’s efforts to change the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh unilaterally in the summer of 2020. To understand the events of 2020, one has to look at the events from 2013. In April 2013, a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) patrol came close to Burtse in the Depsang area. Indian forces stopped that patrol and a face-off ensued. After three weeks of negotiations, the standoff was resolved and the PLA troops went back. In 2014, another face-off happened in Chumar. After two weeks of negotiations, it was resolved. In 2017, when the Dolam issue was playing out in Bhutan–India border, an incident of stone throwing took place in Pangong Tso. The incidents of the summer of 2020 are well known. The reason why one must look at these incidents is to understand that the LAC in Eastern Ladakh has been under pressure from the Chinese for better part of the last decade.

The origin of this problem lay in the boundary question that started impinging on the bilateral relations few years after both the countries became republics in the late 1940s. In the early part of 1950-60, bilateral relations were cordial. Both then prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Premier Zhou Enlai jointly proposed Panchsheel which even today China mentions as the basis for international relations. Soon after, from 1956 onwards, when the first Chinese intrusion came in the Barahoti area, the bilateral relations started going southwards. The discovery of the Western Highway that China built through Aksai Chin in 1957 can be called as a turning point in the boundary question.

Letters started getting exchanged between the two countries on this issue. Indian patrols started getting intercepted and jockeying for positions started in the area of Eastern Ladakh. This resulted in India establishing defensive posts in both Eastern and Western Sectors of the India–China border. The bilateral relations deteriorated and resulted in India–China war of 1962 leading to India’s defeat. However, Chinese troops went back to their side of the border but for Eastern Ladakh. China has occupied about 38,000 sq km of Indian territory in Eastern Ladakh. In 1963, Pakistan ceded the Shaksgam Valley to China.

There was a freeze in the bilateral relations from 1962 to 1976 till the Indian Ambassador was posted again to China. Boundary question started getting discussed again. However, China’s position on the issue started getting hardened. Then came the famous visit of then PM Rajiv Gandhi to China in 1988. That visit rebooted the bilateral relations and invigorated the negotiations on the boundary question. The joint statement issued during that visit mentioned that peace will be maintained on the border. That was the basis on which the bilateral relations were to progress. Two agreements were signed between on the boundary question in 1993 and 1996.

Mechanisms like Joint Working Group and Experts’ Group started negotiating on the boundary issue. The Special Representative (SR) mechanism was instituted after then PM A B Vajpayee’s visit to China in 2003. This mechanism was instrumental in signing of the agreement in 2005 on political parameters and guiding principles for the settlement of the India-China boundary question. The SRs are now working towards arriving at a framework to resolve the boundary question.

No fatal casualties

While all this happened, there were many incidents on the border. Barring the Nathu La incident, where Chinese opened fire on Indian troops in 1967 and the Tulung La incident in 1975 where an Assam Rifles patrol was ambushed by the Chinese, there were no fatal casualties. All of that changed in 2020. The incidents that happened in the summer of 2020 have been covered in the media in detail. The turning point was that both sides lost soldiers after a gap of 45 years. Many have tried to analyse the reason for the Chinese actions. India’s External Affairs Minister has said in an interview that Chinese themselves have given five different reasons for their actions. It really does not matter as to what reasons can be attributed to the incidents in Eastern Ladakh. What one needs to look at is that where do we go from here.

The Eastern Ladakh incidents have resulted in a huge trust deficit between India and China. It will take a lot of effort and time to bring this relationship back on an even keel. One good thing is that even at the height of the incidents last year, the communication at the diplomatic and military levels continued. Therein lies the silver lining in the dark cloud. The Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs, which is a diplomatic process, has been meeting regularly and so is the high-level military commanders meeting. These have resulted in disengagement of troops from Pangong Tso where, for the first time, some firing was resorted to as a warning and not for effect.

However, other friction points remain to be resolved. India has been demanding disengagement (of troops facing each other in close proximity should move back and this will avoid any escalation in the situation) followed by de-escalation (of troops which have been mobilised, should move back to their permanent peace time locations). It appears that Chinese are yet to agree to disengaging from other frictions points.

Simultaneously, India took some actions like banning of Chinese apps due to security and sovereignty issues and streamlined some procedures for investments from countries that share the border with India. Chinese officials have been saying that boundary question should be placed at its proper place and other aspects of bilateral relations should go on as usual. That proposal is unlikely to cut any ice with India.

That raises the question, what should be done to resolve this impasse. Since the boundary issue is the reason for the present imbroglio, that needs to be taken care of first. It will be naïve to believe that the very complex boundary question can be resolved in a short time. But what can be done is that status quo as it existed prior to the incidents of 2020 can be restored and an understanding between both the sides to maintain peace and tranquillity along the border can be arrived at. This ask from India is reasonable and achievable. Thereafter, an effort needs to be made to resolve the boundary issue through negotiations once and for all. That is not going to be easy and require a genuine determination from both sides.

(The writer is Member, National Security Advisory Board, and Director General, Centre for Contemporary China Studies)