Clash of personalities splinters NDA’s prospects in Tamil Nadu

Since reviving ties with the BJP in April, AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami has been asserting that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will grow stronger with the induction of more political parties to challenge the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) in the 2026 Assembly polls. 

Eight months have passed, but the NDA has not seen any new constituents enter its fold. It also faces the daunting task of building synergy between cadre and functionaries of the AIADMK and the BJP, the two major parties. 

In the meantime, the AMMK led by T T V Dhinakaran and former chief minister O Panneerselvam have quit the NDA. The two leaders, who have considerable influence among the Mukulathor community across Tamil Nadu’s central and southern regions, pushed the AIADMK to the third slot in many constituencies in the 2024 general elections. 

The PMK, which is hit by internal squabbling, and a few smaller parties remain guarded about their next moves.

The DMDK, led by late Vijayakanth’s wife Premalatha, the only party which allied with the AIADMK in the 2024 polls, is also dithering on joining the NDA by maintaining that a decision on alliance will be taken in January 2026. It is upset that Palaniswami overlooked the party by not allotting a Rajya Sabha seat that was earlier ‘promised’. 

The BJP also faces criticism for ceding ‘too much space’ to the AIADMK and for not asserting itself more strongly ahead of the polls, amid rumours that its popular face and former state unit chief, K Annamalai, is being sidelined to maintain harmony within the alliance.

As the NDA struggles to find cohesion, DMK president and Chief Minister M K Stalin, on Wednesday, officially launched election work with a seat-sharing meeting with the Congress. The DMK has been projecting unity within the SPA, with Stalin frequently sharing the stage with alliance leaders. In contrast, the AIADMK and BJP have rarely organised joint meetings or activities over the past eight months, raising doubts about the alliance’s strength.

The NDA made a strategic mistake by inviting Vijay’s TVK into the alliance to prevent a multi-way split of anti-DMK votes — a move widely seen as an admission that it could not defeat the DMK without Vijay’s support. As expected, TVK rejected the offer, saying it would ally only with those who accept Vijay as their chief ministerial candidate. 

Palaniswami’s hope that Vijay would abandon his independent stance and join the AIADMK after the Karur stampede, which claimed 41 lives, also faltered. His claim that the first step toward an alliance had begun, pointing to TVK flags at his rally, was firmly rejected by Vijay’s camp, which insisted on its intent to contest the 2026 elections independently.

Despite several attempts by the BJP, Palaniswami stands firm in not taking back expelled leaders — V K Sasikala, TTV, and OPS — into the party. He also stands accused of not being ‘accommodative’, unable to stitch a strong alliance despite the BJP being on his side, and continuing to expel seniors, the latest being K A Sengottaiyan, who joined the TVK. 

Not just OPS and TTV, even the PMK and the DMDK are said to be exploring the possibility of an alliance with the TVK. If such an alliance takes shape, the NDA could be in for a tough challenge, especially in northern and southern Tamil Nadu. The BJP has now invited OPS to New Delhi for talks to pacify him. 

Political analyst Maalan Narayanan told DH that TTV and OPS see the 2026 polls as an opportunity to retaliate against Palaniswami for their expulsion from the party. 

“It is merely a clash of personalities, not ideologies, that is preventing them from coming together for an alliance,” Narayanan said, adding that TTV knows that, though his party cannot win, it can spoil the NDA’s chances in many constituencies, just as it did in 2021. 

“On the other hand, Palaniswami does not want Sasikala and TTV back as he feels their presence in the party would undermine his authority in the long run, especially in the event of a defeat in the 2026 polls. He wants to save his position and believes he can sell hopes now,” Narayanan said.

Senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh said Palaniswami should also understand that though Vijay might cut into minority votes — a key support base of the DMK — he is persistent in his attacks against the DMK.

“He is trying to take AIADMK’s place as the prime challenger to the DMK. This is where Palaniswami has to get off his high horse and make concessions. The fact that the BJP is now appealing to Dhinakaran not to join TVK is, in fact, a pathetic political low for the NDA,” he added.

Narayanan said that while the BJP was able to accept Palaniswami’s leadership after arriving at a compromise by removing Annamalai as state unit chief, smaller parties are unwilling to join the AIADMK. 

“Even the PMK’s influence among Vanniyars is waning. The fact also remains that EPS never took any serious efforts to pacify his opponents, including TTV. He has not made any effort to include members from Vijay’s party,” he said.

The DMK is also making efforts to weaken the NDA by keeping personal rivalries alive, further complicating the Opposition landscape ahead of 2026, Narayanan concluded.