Explained | Why AIADMK, BJP revived their ties, and will it work on the ground?

Chennai: Behind firming up the alliance with AIADMK a year before the 2026 assembly elections is not just the BJP’s electoral strategy to halt the DMK juggernaut in Tamil Nadu but also to weaken Chief Minister M K Stalin’s growing influence in national politics, where he has emerged as a key figure in uniting non-BJP chief ministers.

BJP was keen to announce its alliance with AIADMK early for two reasons -- to give time cadres of both parties to work in the ground to capitalize on anti-incumbency against Stalin’s four-year-old government and to prevent the Dravidian major from exploring other options, like actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), at the last minute.

Though they parted ways and formed their own coalitions in 2024, the election results- DMK alliance’s 39-0 scorecard – underlined the need for the revival of their ties if they were to put up a serious fight against the DMK in 2026 elections, considered crucial for all political parties.

Add to this Stalin’s emergence as a rallying point for all non-BJP CMs on issues like Delimitation, which is likely to reduce South India’s political representation in Parliament and his no-holds-barred attacks against the saffron party on the “imposition” of Hindi, a deeply rooted issue in Tamil Nadu’s political and cultural fabric.

Amit Shah’s special interest

For the AIADMK, 2026 is a ‘do-or-die’ battle. Having failed to win any elections since the death of its charismatic leader, J Jayalalithaa, the party faces pressure to consolidate anti-government and anti-DMK votes to mount a strong challenge against Stalin while avoiding a multi-way split of these votes.

This explains why the BJP’s master strategist, Amit Shah, personally took on the task of bringing AIADMK back into the NDA fold. The BJP believes that a DMK defeat in 2026 would significantly weaken both the party and Stalin’s stature at the national level, especially with the Chief Minister intensifying pressure on the Union Government to clarify its strategy on delimitation due in 2026.

A rainbow coalition is essential to challenge the DMK alliance, which has demonstrated its arithmetic strength and seamless vote transfer among partners in three consecutive elections—2019, 2021, and 2024. The emergence of new players like Vijay, who could siphon off a significant share of anti-government votes, poses a further threat to the NDA’s prospects.

Challenges for the Alliance

To counter this, AIADMK and BJP will aim to broaden their alliance by including parties like the Paatali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which holds sway among the influential Vanniyar community in North and Central Tamil Nadu, and other parties in the South, ensuring the alliance’s statewide appeal.

The AIADMK-BJP alliance lost both the elections it contested in 2019 and 2021. Making dislodging the DMK government on account of corruption and women's safety its prime election issue might not be just enough as they would need to create a strong narrative against the ruling dispensation by spelling out their policies and agenda.

The primary challenge for AIADMK and BJP lies in overcoming their mutual mistrust and functioning as a cohesive unit in the lead-up to and during the elections. Public disputes between the two have created considerable bad blood, and while the alliance appears formidable on paper, both parties must go the extra mile to ensure effective vote transfer and treat each other as allies, not rivals waiting for the other’s downfall.

Another major test will be to counter the DMK’s attacks and narratives on the alliance with Stalin already putting AIADMK-BJP on the mat and calling their alliance a “scam.” AIADMK will also be at pains to explain why it agreed to forming a coalition government – an arrangement that Dravidian parties have been averse to but stressed by Shah at the press conference on April 11 to announce the alliance.

And the DMK has been projecting the 2026 battle as one between Tamil Nadu and Delhi (Centre), having accused the BJP of putting spokes in development projects and delaying or suspending due funds to the state.

The DMK will also intensify its attack on the Dravidian party, seeking to know how it will protect the rights of the state on Delimitation and language, with the BJP completely differing from the AIADMK on such issues.

The DMK could exploit this to renew its charge that AIADMK is “subservient” to the BJP, compromising Tamil Nadu’s interests for power. It will also be tough for the alliance to counter if the DMK makes federalism an election issue on the heels of a victory against the Governor in the Supreme Court.

‘EPS’ costly mistake rectified

R Kannan, biographer of Dravidian legends C.N. Annadurai and M G Ramachandran, told DH that AIADMK’s decision to walk out of the NDA in 2023 was a “costly mistake,” now rectified through the intervention of senior party leaders. He noted that EPS likely realized that minorities, who heavily favor the DMK, would not support him in large numbers, providing another reason to revive ties with the BJP.

“The operational independence EPS has secured, with Amit Shah assuring that the BJP will not interfere in AIADMK’s internal affairs, is a positive aspect of the alliance. Additionally, the BJP’s support alleviates the resource crunch AIADMK has faced in challenging the DMK,” Kannan said.

He also highlighted that the strengths of AIADMK and BJP are complementary, and for EPS, aligning with the BJP was a necessary move, as 2026 represents his last realistic chance to reclaim power.

“Unfortunately, AIADMK had ceded its opposition space to BJP’s K. Annamalai and others in the last four years. The saving grace is the anti-incumbency against the DMK government. Though the BJP has made inroads in Tamil Nadu, it remains a Hindi heartland party. That’s why it needs a regional host like AIADMK, which fits the bill,” he added.

He also said much depends on how much the electorate will welcome a prospective coalition government, although neither of the Dravidian parties is in a position to come to power on their own.