Why is the NDA cookie crumbling in Tamil Nadu, albeit for now?

The recent exits of T T V Dhinakaran and O Panneerselvam from NDA have thrown a spanner in the works of the coalition in the southern state ahead of the 2026 polls.

Chennai: Ever since his party revived ties with the BJP in April, AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami has been expressing confidence that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Tamil Nadu will expand by inducting more parties to take head-on the DMK alliance in the 2026 polls. 

Further, in one of his campaign meetings in July, Palaniswami claimed that a “grand party” will join the NDA, even as questions were raised about the cohesiveness of the combine, which failed in both elections it contested in 2019 and 2021. 

But what has happened is Palaniswami’s former boss O Panneerselvam and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) led by T T V Dhinakaran – not major players -- have quit the NDA, which they joined in 2024 when the BJP under its then state chief K Annamalai cobbled up a rainbow coalition. 

Their exit has raised questions whether Palaniswami was serious about fighting the DMK in the polls or merely interested in ensuring his supremacy in the AIADMK. It is an open secret that Palaniswami is opposed to OPS and TTV being part of the NDA especially at a time when voices for the unification of AIADMK is getting shriller. 

DMDK, the only party which allied with the AIADMK in 2024, is also keeping a distance from Palaniswami after accusing him of going back on the promise of allotting a Rajya Sabha seat. 

Another ally of the BJP, the Paatali Makkal Katchi (PMK) is beset with internal problems with party founder S Ramadoss and his son Anbumani involved in a messy public fight, leaving the AIADMK, BJP, and Tamil Maanila Congress, the only constituents of the NDA, for now. A couple of smaller parties are also keeping their cards close to their chest. 

OPS and Dhinakaran were feeling sidelined ever since AIADMK walked into the NDA and they expected the BJP to convince Palaniswami to acknowledge that they were part of the alliance, though they may have personal differences.

The two leaders – whose presence in the NDA helped the BJP win over significant support from Mukulathor caste to which they belong in 2024 elections – believed the new state chief Nainar Nagenthiran would court them actively like Annamalai. OPS at one point even accused Nagenthiran of ignoring his phone calls. 

But the BJP’s keenness in ensuring that Palaniswami was kept in good honour unsettled OPS and Dhinakaran. Though the BJP might reach out to them in the coming weeks and months, political analysts say much damage has been done with crucial time being lost in internal affairs rather than fighting the DMK. 

OPS, who was one of the early supporters of the BJP that he allowed the party to broker peace in the AIADMK, decided to call it quits when he was denied an appointment to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to Tamil Nadu in July. Though Dhinakaran was patient by giving a benefit of doubt to the BJP, his supporters were growing restless over EPS not acknowledging them as part of the NDA.

“As far as I know, TTV is someone who believes in giving and taking respect. I don’t think this is a knee-jerk reaction. He must have felt disrespected and insulted. His only expectation was a formal announcement that his party was part of the NDA. When even that was not being met, I think he decided enough is enough,” a source aware of the developments told DH. 

The source added that Dhinakaran will wait till November or December for the BJP to come out with a proposal for co-existing in NDA. “If the BJP doesn’t find a way, he will chart his own course. His only option then would be TVK led by actor Vijay. The ball is actually in BJP’s court. If the party is serious about putting up a tough fight against, it should convince EPS to accommodate everyone who is opposed to DMK,” the source said.