Why the Tamil Nadu polls will be a watershed moment for the state's politics

The first election to be held in absence of political heavyweights is expected to throw up a new leadership that does not have roots in the Tamil film industry

The 2021 Tamil Nadu polls are set to be historic in more ways than one. This is the election that will act as a springboard for a new generation to rise and fill the leadership vacuum caused by the deaths of the Big Two of Tamil politics, M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa.

Not just that, the two prime chief ministerial aspirants, Edappadi K Palaniswami from the AIADMK and M K Stalin from the DMK, will have to prove their worth as political contenders minus any celebrity as 'popular' faces — neither of them hails from the world of Tamil cinema, a near-staple fixture in the state’s politics so far. Expectation is that the winner — be it the incumbent EPS or the challenger MKS — will not just occupy Fort St. George, Tamil Nadu’s seat of power, but also emerge as a leader in his own right.

A sight to behold in the run-up to the election is that of the two leaders returning to the grassroots, entirely depending on the party's strength and cadre to win people's trust.

While MKS has turned to the gram sabha meeting model to engage with rural masses, EPS is criss-crossing the state, hoping to beat a 10-year anti-incumbency. “A chief minister getting into an agricultural field and greeting a farmer was unthinkable in Tamil Nadu where politics became personality-oriented over the years….It is a happy development that CM aspirants are going back to the ground,” said political analyst P Ramajayam.

This is probably the first time in many decades that the two Dravidian parties have launched their campaigns early in the day – a full five months before the elections. They have also engaged political consultants to advise them with electioneering. It promises to be a keenly-fought, bipolar contest between the DMK and the AIADMK.

But this wasn’t how it was looking until a few weeks ago when ‘Superstar’ Rajinikanth’s entry into the campaign threatened to shake things up. With his decision to pull out at the last minute, citing health reasons, the other new factor in the polls, the presence of the BJP, has also become something of a non-starter. The Saffron party was hoping to use Rajinikanth’s popularity and plank of ‘spiritual politics’ to make inroads. But its hopes have been dashed — for now.

Stalin’s biggest fight

Beyond that it’s an election, say watchers, that will test both established and new players thoroughly. While MKS might have established himself as the unquestioned leader of DMK, having defeated other contenders for power within his family for now, it remains a high-stakes contest for him. But according to senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh the challenges for EPS are much bigger. He not only has to handle the rebel within – his deputy O Panneerselvam – but also alliance partners, especially BJP, and Sasikala, Jayalalithaa's ‘shadow’, who ‘gifted’ the CM's chair to him.

Challenging the two parties are Kamal Haasan who, with his party, the Makkal Needhi Maiam, is projecting himself as the “change agent”, and Tamil nationalist Seeman of the Naam Tamizhar Katchi, who aspires to establish “rule of Tamils.”

Kamal's campaign is focussed on “corruption that has ruined” Tamil Nadu, but his campaign does not carry weight beyond urban areas it is believed. Similarly, Seeman’s campaign too has only limited takers according to analysts. The two challengers are not expected to make a big impact this time around.

This brings the contest down to the DMK and AIADMK. Though the popular belief is that the DMK has an edge, there is also a realisation within the party that the rival AIADMK “may be down, but not out”. MKS would know that EPS is no pushover, though he might have landed in the CM's chair accidentally. Add to this the BJP putting its weight behind AIADMK and the latter is a formidable contender to take on.

Moreover, as mentioned, for MKS the 2021 elections is his biggest political battle so far as he shoulders the enormous responsibility of ending the decade-long ‘political exile’ for the party and realising his long-nursed dream of being the CM.

A victory will not just attest to his political acumen – he led the DMK alliance to an emphatic win in 2019 Lok Sabha polls – but also neutralise any resistance from his elder brother M K Alagiri, who is trying to make himself heard as the election draws closer.

AIADMK’s bid to survive

For EPS and AIADMK, the election is a matter of survival more than anything else – BJP is waiting at the door looking for an opportunity to gobble up the party and emerge as the prime challenger to the DMK. Also, Sasikala’s nephew, T T V Dinakaran’s party, the AMMK, may also cut into its vote base. And AIADMK cadres aren't too enthused with ally BJP.

To his credit, EPS has not just managed to keep the government afloat, though with help from the BJP, but has also consolidated his position within the AIADMK. He believes his image of a “down-to-earth” politician, his agricultural roots and “good work” in four years, especially Covid-19 containment efforts and 7.5 % reservation for government school students in medical admissions, will come to his rescue.

EPS also is using the AIADMK's time-tested weapon against the DMK – the charge of dynastic politics — to take potshots at MKS' son Udhayanidhi, the latest entrant from DMK’s first family into politics.

It remains unclear which of these factors will find popular acceptance. Political watchers believe all the uncertainty might end up making this the most expensive election in the country due to expected “high spending” by contestants.