Domestic equity benchmarks BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty opened on a cautious note Thursday as investors await RBI's monetary policy decision.
Ahead of RBI's MPC announcement today, Crisil on Wednesday downgraded DHFL to 'D', for non-payment to bond-holders. Already, the shadow banking crisis has caused a lot of liquidity concerns in the system, preventing effective transmission of the rate cuts. It can play a large role in the RBI's decision.
Given that the domestic and global economic growth momentum has slowed further and inflation risks are not on the horizon, the monetary policy committee (MPC) is all set to give a minimum of 25 basis point rate cut today but the markets may be looking for the RBI's stance on maintaining the liquidity in the banking system to facilitate the transmission of rate reduction.
The rupee opened on a weak note and declined by 19 paise to 69.45 against the US dollar in opening trade Thursday, ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision. Forex traders said, foreign fund outflows and rising crude oil prices also kept pressure on the Indian rupee. The rupee opened weak at 69.41 at the interbank forex market and then fell further to 69.45, down 19 paise over its last close.
"CARE Ratings expect CPI inflation to average 4% in FY20, 60 bps higher than a year ago. The rise in inflation will mainly be on account of the waning of favourable base effect, rise in consumer and general spending, a possible upward movement in the oil prices and increase in food prices," says Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Care Ratings.
CPI inflation is projected to be around 2.9-3% for H1FY20 and 3.5-3.8% for Q3FY20 by the RBI in its last monetary policy.