‘BJP may emerge single largest party, NDA majority’

The Lok Sabha elections have entered the last leg with just one phase on May 19. So far, polling in 483 constituencies are over and the voting is only left in 59 seats. Both the BJP-led NDA, Congress-led UPA and other Opposition parties are fighting out across the country on a variety of themes. Well-known psephologist Sanjay Kumar, Director of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), spoke to DH's Shemin Joy on the possible results and campaign themes so far.

Six phases of polling is over and now voting for just 59 seats are left in the seventh and final phase of Lok Sabha elections. What sense have you captured in the first six phases? Where is this election headed to?

Some basic things. BJP is emerging as the single largest party and it is way ahead of its nearest rival, which is Congress. I see NDA is more or less moving in a direction in which it gets majority. I don't think that Congress is reaching 100. It is somewhere close 75-80 and not more than that. That is the overall reading.

Compared to 2014, the perception is that BJP may lose some seats in Hindi heartland where it peaked to almost maximum. The theory is that these losses would be made up in Odisha and West Bengal. Do you think BJP has improved its standing in these two states after the last four phase of polling? Is that happening?

My sense is that BJP is making serious inroads in West Bengal and Odisha. These are the two states where the BJP would register sizeable gains compared to 2014. At the same time I do believe the BJP tally in Hindi heartland is going to comedown. It is because in 2014, they had peaked in these states. They had peaked in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi. In many of these states, BJP tally would come down. But at the same time, BJP tally is going to significantly increase in West Bengal and Odisha. I am sure they are going to do very well in Tripura.

One of the highlights of this election was the themes used by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his campaign. What changes did you observe in Modi's campaign during these elections?

We can see the change in campaign. if I go from the latest to back, on Sunday in the last phase of polls, Modi is using his caste identity and his class identity. He used this language that he belongs to backward class but I want to make everyone forward. He used both class and caste in one of his last campaigns. He has done that cleverly to mobilise voters of these two groups, which form a large number in seats, especially in eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar that are going to polls in the last phase of polls. I think in the long two month campaign, he realised that just keep attacking the Congress or keep mobilising the voters just on one issue makes the campaign a little stale and people start losing interest. He has shifted the focus of campaign every time. Earlier, it was big attack on Gandhi family, on corruption, on Bofors, on Rajiv Gandhi etc. So he started with just one line. From Mr Clean, he (Rajiv) has become Bhrashtachari (Corrupt) No 1 at the end of his life. He then went on attacking how he misused the naval ship for his picnic etc etc. What I am trying to say is that if he used caste and class identity in one phase, in another he used corruption as the theme to project Congress as a corrupt party. More than Congress, he tried to project Gandhi family as a corrupt family. Then in many speeches, he kept on invoking Balakot air strikes, Pulwama terror strikes, national security etc. In some other campaigns, he targeted the regional parties, he kept attacking the regional leaders. He kept on saying the 'Mahagadbandhan' (Grand Alliance) is a 'Mahamilavat'. With UP going to polls in all phases, this theme recurred and there were constant attack on Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav and BSP supremo Mayawati. He was also reminding people of lack of alternatives. He would not say lack of alternatives. He would only say the leader of the party which is contesting 30-40 seats are dreaming to be the Prime Minister.

So there were diverse themes in Modi's campaign. Is this what you are saying?

The different tools which were used by Modi in his campaign is ridiculing the regional parties, trying to remind the voters all the time that leaders of regional parties are a bunch of jokers. These are his words, not mine. He always tried to tell people how important is national security. In one of the campaigns lately, he even said that regional leaders were not capable of handling local crime and how are they going to tackle terrorism. In one of the speeches, he even asked didn't you (those attending the rally) get the feeling that you yourself went into Pakistan and bombarded them on your own. He was asking didn't get the feeling that you were throwing the bomb. This whole issue of nationalism and national security kept echoing all the time. In between, he knows one has to give new flavour, new momentum to the campaign. He then brought in the caste identity, the class identity, then the attack on Gandhi family. I think these were some of the issues ran through out the campaign. What Modi and Amit Shah, especially the Prime Minister, did during the two-month long campaign is that he gave new impetus, new enthusiasm to its own supporters. That has been careful crafted.

Do you think the Opposition has not managed to dent the BJP campaign? Was the Opposition successful in resisting this campaign?

See on corruption, neither Congress nor regional parties have very little to say much in reply to Modi. When it comes to a lack of alternatives and new faces, these leaders are only contesting in limited number of seats. I think they (regional parties) have very little to offer. The only front on which the BJP has not been able to give a reply, I think, was on the issue of unemployment. There is rural distress. These are some of the issues. Especially on the governance issue, Congress charged the BJP. The BJP leaders were not effective in countering that by citing data or any other argument. But on all other issues, whether it is Balakot or any other issues...later Congress stopped asking questions about the operations. On issues like national security, stability and other issues, Congress and other Opposition parties failed to give an effective reply to the BJP campaign. They failed to convince people on the ground. I would even say Congress failed to convince people even on growing unemployment. Even if people were convinced, they had the belief that it is not Congress which will be able to solve this problem and it is Modi who can solve the problem. BJP was far ahead in establishing a connect with people compared to the Congress.