BJP may not be able repeat its Bihar success in West Bengal

A section of state leaders are apprehensive that the anti-incumbency factor banked upon by the party might not work as expected

After it’s striking success in the Bihar Assembly elections, the BJP is upbeat about coming to power in West Bengal with a two-third majority in the 2021 Assembly elections. But a look at the ground realities in the state puts a question mark on the tall claims made by BJP leaders such as Kailash Vijayvargiya.

Despite winning 18 seats in Bengal in the last Lok Sabha elections, the BJP is yet to make any dent into the formidable minority vote base of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. The minorities form 28% of the state’s population. State BJP president Dilip Ghosh admitted that his party’s booth level organisation in minority-dominated areas was still weak. The BJP had been a prominent political force in Bihar for a considerable time, whereas in Bengal, the party was considered a fringe element before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

The fact that BJP is yet to have a prominent face in the state, and that the party would contest the 2021 Assembly election without projecting a Chief Ministerial candidate as indicated by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, may dash its hopes in Bengal. The BJP is yet to produce a leader equal to the stature of the TMC supremo.

BJP sources said that a section of state leaders were apprehensive that the anti-incumbency factor banked upon by the party might not work as expected. They pointed out that in Bihar, an anti-incumbency factor was there against the NDA government, but despite that the Opposition failed to capture power. “There is possibility that a similar situation will occur in Bengal,” a senior state BJP leader said. However, state BJP general secretary Sayantan Basu said that the anti-incumbency factor in Bihar affected the JD(U) and not the BJP.

The apprehension over the NRC has raised questions whether the BJP would get the support of the Hindu refugees and whether the CAA can make up for the losses.

BJP’s organisational strength in Bengal is nowhere near that of the Trinamool Congress (TMC). BJP insiders revealed that in the two organisational meetings held in Bengal earlier this month, Shah told the state leadership to put special focus on strengthening booth level organisation to achieve its target of winning 200 seats.