Kerala voters 'swing' again

In recent years, the voter has shown growing impatience towards all undesirable tendencies in politics and utilised the only opportunity he/she gets to react with characteristic ruthlessness. If it was the rampant groupism in the Congress that earned the voter’s ire in 2004 leading to the 19-1 rout for the UDF, the arrogance of the CPM leadership is one among several factors which almost reversed the trend in favour of the very same UDF this time.

The LDF can surely heave a sigh of relief at the fact that what appeared to be a stunning defeat did not turn out to be as grave as many political observers had predicted.

They had expected a washout for the beleaguered CPM-led front which presented an unusual image of being a bundle of contradictions.

A comparison of the vote share of either fronts brings out the simple fact that coalition politics is here to stay in Kerala. The UDF combine has secured 47.73 per cent of the votes, over 9 per cent more than the 38 it secured last time while the CPM-led LDF’s vote share dipped to 42.01 per cent, a decrease of about 5 per cent from the 2004 polls. What is interesting is that the CPM’s vote share has come down only marginally from 31.5 in 2004 to 30.52 this time.

The UDF’s glittering tally of 16 seats mainly owes to the increased vote share of the Congress which bagged 13 of the 17 seats in which it contested. From the 32.13 per cent the party got last time, it has now secured 40.1 per cent. The elections have in a way signalled the return of the Indian Union Muslim League which had suffered a bitter defeat both in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections and the 2006 Assembly polls. Both E Ahmed (Malappuram) and E T Muhammed Basher (Ponnani) have registered massive wins.

Meanwhile, the BJP’s long-cherished dream of opening its account in the state suffered a big jolt again with its vote share dropping from 12 per cent in 2004 to 6.43 per cent now.

Assessing the LDF debacle virtually amounts to repeating what has already consumed reams of news space over the last two years. From a belligerent Church publicly declaring that it will teach the irreverent comrades a lesson to the all-out war between the chief minister and CPM state secretary, the front had been wilting under myriad issues.

What stands out as one of the main causes of the LDF defeat is its opportunistic alliance with Abdul Nasser Madhani’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP). This was also expected to have caused consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of the UDF rather than the BJP in many south and central Kerala constituencies.

Divided house

The LDF also paid the price of facing the elections as a divided house with the CPI and the Janata Dal not at all happy over the seat-sharing. The M P Veerendrakumar-led Janata Dal, which vowed to teach the CPM a lesson, campaigned openly against its candidates at Kozhikode, Vatakara, Alathoor and Palakkad. In fact, the Dal support became crucial in Kozhikode where the CPM candidate lost to the Congress by just 838 votes.
DH News Service