Monsoon to hit the Kerala coast on May 30: IMD

The south west monsoon is likely to set over the Kerala coast on its normal arrival date of May 30, the Indian Meteorological Department has announced.
 
“The statistical forecast model suggests that the monsoon onset over Kerala this year is likely to be close to the normal date. The south west monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 30 with a model error of four days on either side,” the met agency said on Tuesday.
 
This opens up a window between May 26 to June 4 for the monsoon's arrival in Indian mainland. The June-to-September monsoon season is crucial for Indian agriculture as lakhs of farmers rely on monsoon for farming.
 
In four out of the last five years, the south west monsoon reached the mainland in the first week of June. The only exception was 2015 when the monsoon reached Kerala on May 30, going against the June 5 onset forecast. The maximum delay happened in 2016 when the monsoon reached Kerala on June 7.
 
“The forecasts of the monsoon onset issued during the past 12 years (2005-2016) except 2015 were proved to be correct. However, past data suggest that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country,” said the met agency.
 
Last month, IMD predicted a normal south west monsoon in 2017 when the country is expected to receive 96% of the average monsoon rain, essential for summer crops.
 
Normally the south west monsoon advanced over the Andaman Sea around May 20. But this time formation of a cyclonic circulation over the Andaman Sea resulted into strengthening and deepening of the monsoon parameters over the ocean.
 
As a result, the monsoon advanced into some parts of south east Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands, entire south Andaman Sea and parts of north Andaman Sea on May 14.
 
The climatic conditions are now becoming favourable for the further advance of south west monsoon into winder area in the Bay of Bengal and the remaining parts of Andaman Sea, as well as the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the next 48 hours.