Mulayam’s death may cause birth of smaller units based on caste, religion in UP

In the wake of the death of Mulayam Singh Yadav, a dominant force in Uttar Pradesh’s politics, there could be a “re-churning” of caste-ridden communal manoeuvrings. The state could also see the emergence of more caste- and religion-based smaller outfits, with leaders seeking to cash in on the void created.

Mulayam had successfully woven the ‘Muslim-Yadav’ combination in the state, which enabled his Samajwadi Party (SP) to reap rich electoral dividends and remain a potent political force in the state.

Although, of late, Mulayam had been keeping away from political activities due to his illness, he did occasionally visit the Lucknow office of the party, of which he was the founder, and address party workers, albeit briefly.

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His mere presence at the party office energised the workers for whom he was ‘Netaji’—someone who could not only keep the party united but also bring the votes.

“Mulayam was an astute politician…no one understood UP politics better than him…he had an excellent connect with the masses,” media analyst J P Shukla said.

“Mulayam managed to keep his huge political clan united... Akhilesh (Yadav) has yet to prove that he has those qualities…the clan is already divided with Shivpal (Mulayam’s younger brother) parting ways,” Shukla told DH.

According to Shukla, Akhilesh would have a tough time in keeping his party’s traditional vote bank, which was already threatened by his rivals, intact. “We may see the emergence of different factions from the two communities claiming to be their leaders,” he remarked.

While the Bharatiya Janata Party already had its eyes on the ‘Yadav’ votes, the Congress as well as the AIMIM leader Asauddin Owaisi would be making every attempt to wean away the Muslims, who also formed the Samajwadi Party vote bank, Shukla said.

The BJP was already on a high, following its surprising victory in the recently held by-polls in Muslim-dominated Rampur and Azamgarh Lok Sabha constituencies. The saffron party also feels that around 78 per cent Muslims may have voted for it in the recently held UP assembly polls.

“Mulayam was the first choice of the Muslims…he was also referred to as Maulana Mulayam,” said another Lucknow-based political analyst.

The analyst said that Mulayam always tried to keep the non-Yadav OBCs in good humour and promoted leaders from their communities as well as the upper castes within the party, as he realised that only Muslims and Yadavs could not help the SP attain power. “Akhilesh has not been able to do that,” he added.

It remains to be seen if there is any erosion in the SP vote bank and re-alignment of castes in the state, which is poised to play a crucial role in the formation of the next government at the Centre in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.