Tale of twists: What we know about Maharashtra political crisis so far

In a massive jolt to the Shiv Sena-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in Maharashtra, the Opposition BJP handed an embarrassing defeat to the alliance by securing five of the 10 Legislative Council seats that went to the polls on Monday. Despite having fewer numbers than required, the BJP managed to win all five seats that it contested. What that means is that several MVA members cross-voted for the BJP.

The numbers game

The voting in the Legislative Council is dependent on members of the Legislative Assembly who form the electoral college. In Maharashtra, the total strength of the Legislative Assembly stands at 288. While the NCP-Shiv Sena-Congress alliance has a total of 152 seats, the BJP has 106 seats. In the Legislative Council polls, the BJP had the support of seven more candidates in addition to its members. The party, however, said that it had received the votes of 134 MLAs, which indicates that 21 members from the MVA bloc voted in its favour.

Also Read — Amid Maharashtra political crisis, Sanjay Raut hints at dissolution of state Legislative Assembly

The elections witnessed the candidature of six members from the MVA side and five members from the BJP bloc. Though the MVA had sufficient votes to ensure the victory of its six candidates, it lost one seat to the BJP after Congress leader Chandrakant Handore failed to secure the required number of preferential votes.

Turmoil in Maharashtra politics

Shiv Sena’s veteran leader Eknath Shinde, an autorickshaw and tempo driver-turned-politician and Maharashtra's Minister of Urban Development, along with a bunch of 35 to 40 MLAs is currently in Guwahati. This has created a crisis-like situation for the MVA government, which can lose power in the state if its MLAs shift to the other camp. A series of meetings have begun with MVA parties holding discussions to ensure that the coalition government does not fall. The Shiv Sena, for its part, sacked Shinde as the leader of the legislative party. He has been replaced by Ajay Chaudhary. Meanwhile, Shinde shared a cryptic tweet in which he said he was a staunch follower of Balasaheb and would not cheat for power. The tweet hinted that he was not yet aligned with the Opposition parties. He, however, chose to remove 'Shiv Sena' from his Twitter bio.

Also Read — Maharashtra Crisis: Eknath Shinde in Guwahati, claims he has 40 MLAs with him

The BJP then stepped up attacks on the MVA government. The party said that the internal dynamics of the MVA alliance were not favourable and that there was resentment among the members.

Cracks within MVA

According to sources, the discomfort within the MVA began in 2019, when it became clear that the Bharatiya Janata Party was not in a position to form the government on its own. Shiv Sena then started hobnobbing with the NCP and the Congress, even though several top leaders, including Shinde, advised against it. But Thackeray’s aides, Sanjay Raut, Anil Parab and Milind Narvekar among others, told the party chief to look towards new beginnings. The party broke long-standing ties with the BJP, and the MVA was ideated and put together by NCP supremo Sharad Pawar.

As the new coalition adjusted to managing the state government, the Covid-19 pandemic broke out and for the next two years Uddhav, as the leader of the MVA, chose to be on work-from-home mode. Several Sena leaders were reportedly unhappy with the "inaccessibility" of CM Uddhav Thackeray.

Also Read — MVA crisis: Did Uddhav Thackeray ignore warning signs?

What is the impact of the LC win?

If the speculations about the departure of Shinde and the other MLAs are true, the MVA government will likely fall short of the majority mark and lose power. NCP leader Sharad Pawar already clarified that his party would not support the BJP even if the MVA failed in the state.

For the BJP and its allies, this victory will boost their morale for the upcoming elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation and other civic bodies. It will also increase its confidence for the Presidential election that's due next month. And if the MVA government topples, the BJP will most likely return as the next government in the state.

Thackeray fights back

As Shiv Sena-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government seems to be on the brink of a possible collapse, the party has given an ultimatum to rebel MLAs to attend a meeting at 5 pm on June 22.

Meanwhile, Shiv Sena MP Sanjay Raut on Wednesday indicated that Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray could recommend to Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari to dissolve the state Assembly, as the crisis for the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government deepened. "The political developments in Maharashtra are headed towards dissolution of the state Assembly," Raut said.