AAP in J&K: A challenge to BJP in Jammu, but Kashmir is tougher

AAP had supported the BJP's push for repeal of Article 370, and its prospects in the Kashmir Valley would depend on its stance on statehood for J&K

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is all set to debut in Jammu and Kashmir's gloomy political arena. Buoyed by its success in the recent Assembly polls in neighbouring Punjab, the AAP hopes to emerge as an alternative to the established parties in J&K.

Its J&K prospects were recently boosted with a former minister, an ex-MLA, a former Congress leader, and a few hundred political activists joining the party in New Delhi.

In the Jammu region, the Kejriwal-led party has received a good response. Almost the entire leadership of the Panthers Party, which has a strong base in the Udhampur district, has joined the AAP. The AAP, it would seem, could pose a more significant challenge to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) than the Congress in the Hindu majority seats in Jammu.

In the Kashmir Valley, the AAP has set up its office, and some political activists have started joining the party. However, it will be more challenging for Kejriwal and his team to impact the Valley politics as the party had supported the BJP government in Parliament in August 2019 on the repeal of Article 370, which granted J&K special status.

The political equations in the conflict-hit Kashmir Valley are entirely different from the rest of the country. The AAP and the BJP have the same position on Article 370. It would, therefore, be difficult for the Kejriwal-led party to convince voters in the Kashmir and Muslim majority seats of the Jammu region to vote for it. However, Kejriwal's clean image is a plus in the AAP's favour, but much will depend on its stance on demand for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood for J&K.

It is difficult to predict when the much-awaited Assembly polls in the Union Territory (UT) will be held. Union Home Minister Amit Shah's recent statement that the election process will start once the delimitation exercise is over has triggered a thaw of the frozen political process in J&K.

J&K has been without an elected government since June 2018, when the BJP broke its alliance with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), forcing the chief minister of the PDP-BJP alliance, Mehbooba Mufti, to resign. A year later, the BJP government at the Centre abrogated Article 370 and bifurcated J&K into two UTs, Jammu-Kashmir and Ladakh.

In October 2020, the People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), an electoral alliance of several of J&K's regional political parties, came together for restoring the special status of the erstwhile state of J&K. The PAGD, with Farooq Abdullah-led National Conference and Mufti's PDP as its main constituents, jointly contested the maiden district development council (DDC) elections in November-December. The alliance emerged victorious on 110 seats, while the BJP was the single largest party, winning 74 seats.

Political observers believe that if the PAGD remains intact and contests the Assembly polls in alliance, it will not leave any space for other parties, like the BJP or the AAP, in the Kashmir Valley and the Muslim majority areas of the Jammu region. In that scenario, the AAP's best chances to make any impact will be from the Hindu majority districts of the Jammu region. The anti-incumbency factor against the BJP may help the AAP in Jammu, but in Kashmir voting priorities of people are different than in Jammu.

However, it will be too early to predict whether the AAP might throw up surprises or upset political equations in J&K. Even in the best possible scenario, it will be difficult for Team Kejriwal to reach the double-digit mark in the 90-seat J&K Assembly.

Kejriwal and other senior AAP leaders are expected to hold rallies in J&K soon after completing the delimitation process next month. Based on its 'Delhi model', the AAP's plan to reach out to voters will be the promise of augmenting J&K's health infrastructure, education reforms, and cheaper electricity and water supply. It is also likely that the AAP could promise regularisation, as it has in Punjab, to the big chunk of daily wagers in J&K.

Even if the AAP may not be able to cut ice in J&K politics this time, it is likely to create a vote base for the future, much like it did in Punjab from 2014 onwards. The strife-torn region, under President's rule currently, is bound to see a revival of the political process in the coming months. The entry of the AAP could cause more political churn in the region.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the authors' own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH