AAP, TMC bypoll victories signal enduring local strength

The bypoll victories of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab’s Ludhiana West and Gujarat’s Visavadar, and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal’s Kaliganj, announced on June 23, carry profound implications for India’s political landscape, especially among the opposition parties.

These wins, occurring amidst intense political scrutiny and high-stakes regional dynamics, underscore the enduring appeal of regional parties and their ability to navigate complex electoral terrains. For AAP, the victories signal a lifeline for its political relevance after a bruising defeat in Delhi’s Assembly polls. For the TMC, the Kaliganj win reaffirms Mamata Banerjee’s unchallenged dominance in West Bengal, despite mounting challenges. Both outcomes highlight the power of localised governance models, welfare schemes, and strategic voter consolidation in shaping electoral success.

In Punjab, AAP’s victory in Ludhiana West, where its candidate Sanjeev Arora defeated Congress’ Bharat Bhushan Ashu by a significant margin, is a critical milestone. Punjab is now the only state where AAP holds power, making it a high-stakes battleground for the party and its national convener, Arvind Kejriwal.

The loss of Delhi was a seismic blow to AAP’s national ambitions, with Kejriwal and key leaders like Manish Sisodia failing to retain their seats. This setback prompted AAP’s top brass to focus intensely on Punjab, camping in the state to bolster its governance model. The Punjab model, centred on promises like free electricity, healthcare through Mohalla Clinics, and cash transfers, has become AAP’s flagship for demonstrating its administrative competence. The Ludhiana West win, coupled with the party’s recent success in municipal polls in Patiala and Jalandhar, suggests that AAP retains significant popularity in Punjab, despite internal tensions.

Reports of resentment within AAP’s Punjab unit have surfaced, with some suggesting that Kejriwal’s heavy involvement curtails the autonomy of Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann and local leaders. Yet, the bypoll results indicate that these internal frictions have not eroded AAP’s voter base. The party’s ability to secure an urban constituency with a significant Hindu-Khatri population underscores its appeal across diverse demographics. Notably, the Congress finished second, signalling that it remains a viable contender in Punjab.

However, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)’s distant fourth-place finish, with fewer votes than even the BJP, points to its continued decline. Once a dominant force among Panthic voters, SAD has failed to regain ground, ceding space to AAP. This shift highlights AAP’s strategic success in consolidating Punjab’s electorate around its governance-focused narrative, even as the BJP struggles to establish dominance in the state.

Meanwhile, in Gujarat, AAP’s Gopal Italia clinched the Visavadar seat, defeating the BJP’s Kirit Patel by over 17,500 votes. This victory is significant, as it reinforces AAP’s growing foothold in a state long considered a BJP stronghold. 

In West Bengal, the TMC’s landslide victory in Kaliganj, where Alifa Ahmed won by over 50,000 votes against the BJP’s Ashish Ghosh, is a testament to Banerjee’s enduring electoral prowess. The bypoll was necessitated by the death of TMC MLA Nasiruddin Ahmed, Alifa’s father, adding an emotional dimension to the contest. Kaliganj has a significant Muslim population, which constitutes roughly 30% of West Bengal’s electorate. This demographic factor, combined with TMC’s robust voter base, made the seat a near-impossible target for the BJP. Despite the Opposition’s aggressive campaign, leveraging anti-incumbency and allegations of corruption, the TMC’s victory sends a clear message: Banerjee remains West Bengal’s most formidable political force.

Since her 2011 ascent to power, Banerjee has built a loyal voter base through welfare schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar, Kanyashree, and Rupashree, which benefit women and marginalised communities. These initiatives have created a narrative of the TMC as a protector of the poor, particularly in a state with limited economic resources.

The BJP’s attempts to counter this narrative — through allegations of scams like teacher recruitment, sand, and cattle smuggling, and outrage over incidents like the R G Kar rape-murder case — have failed to dent Banerjee’s popularity. The Supreme Court’s rejection of over 26,000 teaching and non-teaching jobs and ongoing protests in Kolkata have fuelled anti-incumbency, yet the TMC’s electoral machinery remains unmatched. The Kaliganj win, ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections, signals that the BJP’s strategy of media campaigns and protests cannot easily dislodge Banerjee’s grip on power.

The BJP’s challenges in West Bengal are compounded by its lack of credible local leadership and internal infighting. The TMC has effectively branded the BJP as a party of ‘outsiders’, a narrative that resonates in a state with strong regional identity. The Muslim vote, a critical bloc, remains firmly with TMC, as voters perceive it as the only force capable of countering the BJP.

The Congress-Left alliance, despite fielding a joint candidate in Kaliganj, trailed far behind, underscoring their diminishing relevance. The TMC’s ability to consolidate its core voters — Muslims, women, and welfare scheme beneficiaries — ensures its dominance in constituencies like Kaliganj, where demographic realities align with its political strategy.

(Sayantan Ghosh is a research scholar and teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. X: @sayantan_gh.)