Afghanistan: Political challenges mount amidst COVID-19 pandemic

In the last three months, while the entire world was preoccupied with its fight against COVID-19, Afghanistan was forced to focus on the threat posed by the Taliban and the continuing political fragmentation within the ruling elite in that country. The situation was so serious that despite travel restrictions and country-wide lockdowns, Zalmay Khalilzad, the special envoy of the American president for Afghanistan, has continued to travel to the region.

On May 17, after months of bickering and bitter political exchanges, President Ashraf Ghani and his main rival, Abdullah Abdullah, signed a deal to end their political differences (for now) and share power. As per the deal, Abdullah Abdullah will be able to appoint half of the cabinet members of Ashraf Ghani’s cabinet and will also head national efforts for peace and reconciliation with the Taliban.

For Afghanistan, it was hoped that the signing of the deal between the US and the Taliban on February 29, 2020, would pave the way for intra-Afghan peace talks and rapprochement between the Kabul government and the Taliban. However, the Taliban’s behaviour over the last three months demonstrates that peace seems a distant possibility for the war-torn country.

An emboldened Taliban

In fact, the Taliban feels emboldened by the deal and has found little incentive to cooperate with the regime in Kabul. Taliban’s maximalist demands and hardening positions regarding the prisoner swap with the Kabul government was the first sign of increasing belligerence of the insurgent group.

Despite the peace deal, the Taliban has not ceased violence and in fact, has intensified attacks. Recently, a ghastly attack took place in a maternity hospital in which pregnant women and babies were targeted. Even by the standards of Afghanistan, it was an unprecedented development. The American special envoy attributed this attack to the Islamic State. However, it was seen as a desperate attempt to salvage the deal with the Taliban by deflecting the blame.

This week, the Taliban’s attack on the northern city of Kunduz was repelled by the Afghan security forces. Besides, in northern Afghanistan, despite the holy month of Ramadan, a mosque was also attacked and worshippers returning from prayers were killed.

Although the Taliban has denied its involvement in the attack on a mosque, it has rejected the Kabul government’s offers for a ceasefire. Hence, as a response to the repeated attacks by the Taliban, the Afghan security forces were ordered to shift their strategy from being defensive to offensive. Interestingly, since the peace deal between the Taliban and the US, foreign troops have not faced the brunt of attacks. Fighting seems limited, primarily, between Afghans.

New political conditions & COVID-19 spread

The continued prevalence of terror attacks, violence and political uncertainty creates favourable conditions for the Taliban to operate with impunity and also allows other groups such as the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) to launch attacks with ever greater intensity. It seems that with the arrival of ISKP as a force to reckon with, it now has become a triangular fight.

While the political conditions within the country are not conducive to peace, the COVID-19 pandemic has spread to different parts of Afghanistan. In the last three months, infections have steadily gone up and as of now, they stand at 8,145 cases. However, with more testing, it is likely that these figures would go up significantly.

Moreover, due to the decades of war and instability, Afghanistan’s health infrastructure is woefully underprepared to deal with COVID-19. Hence, beyond major cities like Kabul, it would be extremely difficult for authorities to control the spread of the pandemic. It would also be a challenge to provide modern healthcare in Taliban-controlled areas.

As countries around the world are fighting the pandemic within their own borders, it seems difficult for them to provide much-needed international assistance to Afghanistan. Conversely, despite COVID-19, the diplomatic efforts to stabilise the country have not stopped.

Indian role and concerns

In this context, India finds itself in a difficult position. India is a major donor and an important strategic partner for Afghanistan. However, in the evolving international efforts, India seems to have been sidelined. India’s lack of direct geographic access only compounds this problem. It was visible in the latest UN meeting on Afghanistan where all six physical neighbours along with the US, Russia and the Kabul government were invited. But India had no place in this meeting.

In early May, Zalmay Khalilzad had visited the region and had held meetings in New Delhi with India’s Minister of External Affairs, S Jaishankar, and National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval. During his visit, Mr Khalilzad while speaking to a newspaper also suggested that India should directly discuss its concerns with the Taliban.

However, India’s Afghanistan policy has for long been beset by the dilemma of whether or not to engage with the Taliban. In the 1990s, India had joined hands with Iran and Russia to support anti-Taliban forces. However, in the evolving political situation, if all other powers including Iran and Russia are willing to engage with Taliban, it makes little sense for India to try to keep its powder dry by not talking to Taliban.

Taliban’s close ties with Pakistan are a matter of concern. India is also worried that Taliban-controlled territory might be used to train anti-India terror groups. However, by shutting the door completely on the Taliban, India stands to gain little, if anything.

Therefore, it may perhaps be necessary for India to open some sort of channels of communication with the Taliban and explore if core Indian interests regarding Afghanistan can be accommodated by the Taliban as well. Whether in the coming months, India can make this difficult choice or not will shape India’s role and position within Afghanistan.

(Sankalp Gurjar is a research fellow with the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. Views are personal)

The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.