An island of peace in troubled Gulf

Unlike Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Syria, in Jordan, the protestors did not call for their dictator to step down.

Jordan is an island of relative peace and stability in West Asia’s storm tossed sea. Bordered on the north by war-torn Syria, on the east by sectarian-conflicted Iraq and militarily assertive Saudi Arabia, in the south by Egypt, and in the West by Israel, Jordan has weathered turbulence stirred by the Arab Spring although the kingdom faces the same problems afflicting its neighbours: poverty, corruption, and paternalism.

In response to powerful images of hundreds of thousands of Egyptians demanding “bread, freedom and justice” broadcast from Cairo’s Tahrir Square during January and February 2011, thousands of Jordanians took to the streets. “Jordanians hoped change was coming: freedom, an end to corruption, and a minimum level of social justice,” stated Lamis Andoni, chief editor of the London-based al-Araby al-Jedeed website. 

But these demonstrations did not draw millions or erupt countrywide as did those in Egypt. While Tunisian, Egyptian, Yemeni and Syrian protesters soon called for their republican dictators to step down, Jordanian demonstrators did not ask for King Abdullah to abdicate.  He promised reforms and an end to corruption, appointed a new prime minister. Demonstrators left the streets. 

Andonis continued, “Today, people are just as angry and marginalised (as other Arabs) but they fear that the alternative (to the monarchy) will be Daesh (Islamic State) or a bloody regime like those of Syria, Iraq or Egypt. The difference between Jordanians and the rest is that they chose the Jordanian regime. Although there is still a lot of marginalisation, stability is a priority (for Jordanians).”

This has had some negative consequences. “The regime is using this to silence dissent and impose economic policies that do not solve any problems. It does not feel it needs to address problems,” she remarked.

Business analyst Oman Obeidat said, “All the people – Jordanians and Palestinians – have interests in preventing an explosion” like the explosions that happened elsewhere. “No one wants to divide the country.” He argued, “The regime is not a dictatorship. People can criticise the government... The Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, the US and Israel do not want an explosion in Jordan as the monarchies in the Arab world could be threatened. The Gulf countries support Jordan financially and politically.”

By contrast, all these countries have backed the expatriate opposition and now largely fundamentalist rebels in Syria, both promoting and prolonging civil war, and they have intervened in the conflicts in both Iraq and Yemen.

Hassan, another commentator remarked, “They want Jordan to be stable because it is a dumping ground” for people fleeing nearby conflicts. Njood al-Majali from the provincial town of Karak observed that Jordan’s “tribal life promotes a strong attachment to the country. People have learnt a lesson from the people around: safety is more important than anything else.” She said, “The threat of violence has (both) strengthened unity and compelled people to show unity.”

Jordanian unity was bolstered in January by popular anger over the brutal burning to death by Islamic State of captured air force pilot Muath al-Kasasbeh. However, according to a source, anger has waned among some poor, deeply conservative Jordanians in the provinces who believe the cult could deliver them from their problems as well as establish an “Islamic rule.” 

The Muslim Brotherhood
There are other serious reasons why Jordan did not face risings that have led to turmoil and the return to authoritarianism elsewhere. The rule of law is largely applied in Jordan. The divide between rich and poor and corruption are not as flagrant as in Egypt, for example.  The police, army and security services are professional and recruit from every family, clan and tribe from among Jordanians of tribal origin who are the bulwark of the regime and state.

The Muslim Brotherhood, which has been part of the establishment for more than 50 years, acts as a more-or-less loyal opposition rather than a destabilising force. The potentially explosive Palestinian half of the population of 6.5 million has been politically “neutralised” by local, regional and international forces.

On the current political front, the king has adopted the domestically popular position that countering the radical jihadi IS should be the regional priority rather than ousting Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, a goal of the king’s allies, or joining the Saudi-led campaign against rebel Houthi tribesmen in Yemen.

During a recent visit to the US, King Abdullah said the campaign against IS “is our war" and pledged to increase Jordanian participation in US-led coalition airstrikes against the IS. This means Jordan differs from its traditional Saudi and Gulf allies without losing the backing of these allies, political columnist Fahd al-Khitan wrote.

When asked how Jordan has so far avoided an explosion, a highly respected Jordanian statesman observed, “We are accustomed to survive.” He paused, adding, “We have never had a balanced budget since the state was founded," thanks to the floods of Palestinians, Iraqis, Lebanese, Syrians and other refugees who have flowed into and settled in Jordan.