Biden’s decision to forgo Quad meeting is ominous

The Big Lens

New Delhi’s plan to hold a meeting of the Quad leaders in the last week of January has had to be put off after US President Joe Biden declined, citing domestic commitments, to visit India around the time. The Modi government had invited him to come as the Republic Day chief guest and sought to pencil in the Quad meeting around January 26. When leaders of nations that are part of a grouping such as the Quad take such decisions, it tends to raise questions about the seriousness of the project itself. Why did Biden choose to forego what would have been a crucial meeting of the group given that it would have perhaps been the last one before India and the US head for national elections later in the year?

As always, though, when India finds that the US finds it difficult to be a steady partner, France is keen to show Delhi that it can be relied upon. French President Emmanuel Macron has gracefully accepted to be the Republic Day chief guest, perhaps paving the way for newer avenues of Indo-French cooperation.

Prime Minister Modi had unveiled the plans for the Quad meeting around January 26 as early as May, on the sidelines of the G-7 Summit in Japan, saying that “the Quad has established itself as an important platform for peace, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.” Joe Biden is the third US President to be invited to the Republic Day in the last decade, and the second to give it a miss. Donald Trump had done so in 2020. Barrack Obama, however, graced the occasion in 2015.

It is tempting, of course, for certain quarters to project Biden’s decision as a snub to Modi over the alleged attempt by India to eliminate a US citizen – albeit a Khalistani separatist carrying out anti-India activities -- on US soil. Several US officials, including from its investigation agencies, have visited India to impress upon Delhi how seriously the US views the matter. Delhi has held its ground, while agreeing to conduct its own investigation.

The Americans have forgotten something. Two decades ago, in the wake of 9/11, America’s South Asia strategy was based on a commitment to build partnerships based on national interests and shared values in the face of emerging geopolitical competition from China and, importantly, a resolve to fight terrorism in all forms and for all reasons. We know what happened to the US resolve to fight terrorism when it staged a hurried exit from Afghanistan, handing over that country and its people to the very Taliban that it had come to finish off. We must now ask if the same fate awaits America’s resolve to fight off the strategic competition from China.

From Delhi’s point of view, the fast pace of China’s emergence in the region and on the global stage and its economic and security challenge to the extant world order remains the key element that both India and the US must factor in together. While Delhi may have been able to swallow the US’ lack of commitment to a stable South Asia as its exit from Afghanistan showed, Washington’s inability to see the big picture from Delhi’s eyes and jointly strategise to counter-balance against China’s rising influence in the Indo-Pacific, especially in India’s extended neighbourhood, offers very little scope for Delhi to find in the White House a consistent and steadfast ally.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts have heightened regional and global instability and is causing hitherto unexpected realignments. Add to this the dynamics of the Russia-Turkey-Iran axis and the China-Pakistan-Iran axis, both threatening to bring the Afghan situation to a boil once again, which can only work to China’s advantage as it seeks to undermine whatever is left of the US’ influence there.

The changing and ever more complex geopolitical landscape in the region requires the US to re-evaluate its South Asia policy and align its policies with those of New Delhi in order to regain its strategic space. The Biden administration should strengthen its partnership with India, make it more robust and mutually beneficial, based on trust and cooperation on all fronts, including fighting against terrorism that seeks to weaken India.

Just as India needs the US on its side, the US needs India on its side for a number of important reasons. Washington should be mindful of the fact that an India that feels insecure in the face of foreign-sponsored terrorism and separatism would not be able to devote all its energies to larger, global causes.