China's OBOR project: will India stand isolated?

Come May 14 and Chinese President Xi Jinping will host at least 28 foreign leaders in Beijing to drum up support for his ambitious One-Belt-One-Road initiative. His guest list includes President Vladimir Putin of Russia, President Joko Widodo of Indonesia, President Rodrigo Duterte of Philippines, Prime Minister M Najib Razak of Malaysia, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe of Sri Lanka and State Counsellor of Myanmar Aung San Suu Kyi. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde will also join Xi and other foreign leaders at a round-table summit on May 15. Xi has, since 2013, been articulating the idea of a “21st century Maritime Silk Road” reviving economic connectivity between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and linking China’s coastline with South East Asia, the Gulf and the eastern coast of Africa. He has also been proposing a “Silk Road Economic Belt” reviving the ancient link between China and Mediterranean through central Asia. The two projects are now together called One-Belt-One-Road (OBOR) initiative and the Chinese government has been pulling all stops to elicit support from other countries and make it a success.

A document “defining goals and principles” of the OBOR initiative will be issued after the round-table summit. China will sign agreements with nearly 20 nations and over 20 international organisations during the conclave, thus setting the legal framework for the OBOR.Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be conspicuous by his absence in the two-day conclave. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently told journalists in Beijing that although no leader from India would attend the meet, New Delhi would send a representative. The government in New Delhi, however, is still non-committal, with official spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs maintaining that no decision had been taken so far.
New Delhi has been opposed to the OBOR initiative ever since it was mooted by Beijing, primarily because one of its key components is a proposed economic corridor, which would pass through areas that India claims its own and accuses Pakistan of illegally occupying in Kashmir. The proposed China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will link Kashgar in Xinjiang in north-western China and a deep sea port at Gwadar in Balochistan in south-western Pakistan. New Delhi has conveyed to Beijing several times that the CPEC would infringe on the sovereignty of India. Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar has told Chinese officials in March that since China itself was very sensitive on its own sovereignty, it should have avoided embarking on a project that would infringe on the sovereignty of India. Without directly referring to CPEC or OBOR, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has himself articulated India’s views on China’s grand connectivity project when he delivered the inaugural speech at the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi on January 17 this year. He said India appreciated the “compelling logic of regional connectivity for peace, progress and prosperity”. Beijing till recently showed no sign of even acknowledging New Delhi’s concerns over the CPEC and rather raised its stake on the project by pledging investment of $62 billion.

All-weather friend

It was only late last month that the Chinese foreign minister tried to allay New Delhi’s concerns. He said that the CPEC was not directly linked to India-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir. New Delhi is not convinced though. Shiv Shankar Menon, former foreign secretary and national security advisor, said that the CPEC, as it was conceived, was not acceptable to India. He pointed out that the huge long-term investment China pledged along the CPEC would in fact “solid­ify and legitimise” its all-weather friend Pakistan’s illegal occupation over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, an integral part of India. India has other reasons to oppose the OBOR, which it views as a “unilateral national initiative” of China. Beijing has been projecting the cross-continental connectivity initiative as a genuine effort to share its prosperity with other nations along the Belt and the Road and to help them build infrastructure. Many in New Delhi however are suspicious about the real political intent of Beijing. Jagannath Panda of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi pointed out that the “primary aim” of the OBOR was to “position China as the epicentre of regional as well as global economics and geopolitics”. New Delhi has already been wary of the “String of Pearls” strategic assets China has been building around India. Beijing’s latest bid to spread its tentacles across South, South-East Asia and East Asia naturally adds to its security concerns.

Not only Pakistan, but many of India’s other neighbours, like Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh and Myanmar, however, have extended their support to the OBOR and appear to be ready to join it. Kabul has extended its support to the CPEC and Beijing is understood to be contemplating extending the economic corridor to Afghanistan. Britain has expressed interest in investing in the CPEC. Iran is keen to join the corridor. New Zealand inked an agreement with China to join the OBOR along with Italy, Switzerland, Turkey etc.
So, does India risk isolation as it continues to oppose the CPEC and stay away from the OBOR? What could New Delhi do to respond to the challenge posed by the ambitious connectivity initiative of China? Just two days before Xi hosts the OBOR forum, Modi will visit Sri Lanka for the 14th United Nations Day of Vesak (Buddha Purnima) celebration — an event, which will give him an opportunity to underline India's centuries-old Buddhist links with East, South and South-East Asia. The Indian Space Research Organisation will on May 5 launch the South Asia satellite – an initiative by India to share with its neighbours the benefits of its prowess in space technology. But New Delhi perhaps needs to do more. It should focus more on connectivity projects within the frameworks of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN). It should try to speed up the International North South Transport Corridor as well as the alternative transport routes it wants to develop through Chabahar Port in Iran to Afghanistan and Russia.