Decoding Modi’s post-Operation Sindoor aggressive stance

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s language since Operation Sindoor has left many of his listeners more than a little baffled.

Having claimed victory over Pakistan in Operation Sindoor (incidentally, Pakistan has done the same), one would have expected him to bask in its afterglow. What could have gone wrong for Modi, driving him to make chest-thumping speeches about India’s tough stance against Pakistan day after day?

Instead of being statesmanlike in the triumphal aftermath of a military victory, Modi’s language has brought cinematic menace to everyday politics with dialogues such as “hot sindoor runs in my veins” to “roti khao, nahin toh meri goli hai hee (eat bread or eat my bullet). There is no reason to believe that Modi’s colourful language is anything but deliberate. Baffling at first, because its belligerence goes counter to the diplomatic outreach made by his government sending seven all-party delegations to 32 countries.

Global leaders will neither see Modi’s aggressiveness in a positive light nor will they be encouraged to help his messaging that Pakistan’s sheltering of terrorist organisations like Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Toiba makes it complicit in initiating an act of war against India.

In fact, such rhetoric plays into Pakistan’s hands by suggesting that the India-Pakistan tension is also a result of the mindset of the Modi regime. Pakistan is instead playing the diplomatic game through statesmanship — with its Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, his foreign minister, and army chief visiting important allies like Turkey, Iran, and Azerbaijan.

Modi’s rhetoric seems aimed at his home audience and driven by domestic compulsions. What could those be?

Can it be just his penchant for headline-worthy copy for TV and print news? The novelty of his filmy dialogues makes him stand apart from political leaders who speak in platitudes over and over again. He shifts the narrative with every public speech, and gives a new headline to the media every day.

Yet another explanation could be that he is preparing the ground for the crucial Bihar elections where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wants to emerge as the single-largest party. This is crucial because it’s likely to be the last election of Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar, who does not seem mentally or physically fit to lead the state once again.

Operation Sindoor will be played as one of the winning narratives in the Bihar polls just as surely as the Modi government’s surprise announcement of conducting a caste census. Since the Bihar election is essentially contested on caste lines, although several stops are planned during his roadshow, where party workers will congratulate him on Operation Sindoor, Bihar’s election is unlikely to be the primary cause of Modi’s chest-thumping performance.

In September, Modi will turn 75-years-old. This was a limit that he and the BJP had set arbitrarily when he wanted to send out his potential challengers like L K Advani and Murali Manohar Joshi to pasture. Although the 75-year rule was a Modi-invention, it had the tacit approval of the party’s ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), which went along with it for reasons best known to its leaders.

Is Modi apprehensive that come September, the RSS might replace him with a younger person? That prospect does not seem anywhere on the horizon, as yet. The RSS may have its differences with the BJP over the appointment of its party president, but there are no indications that the eminence grise of Nagpur are unhappy with Modi. He remains in their eyes as the BJP’s best asset and an election winner.

Nor is the RSS committed to a retirement age of 75 years, considering that the RSS chief is appointed for life. In its 100-year-old history, only two of its chiefs, Rajendra Singh (Rajju Bhaiyya) and K S Sudarshan were replaced because of ill-health. The current RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat will also be 75 this September. Unless there is a crisis which causes a sudden vacancy at the top, the RSS in no position to dictate who should be the next prime minister.

With no internal challenge to Modi from within the BJP or the RSS, why does he then feel the need to burnish his nationalist credentials daily?

Could it be that Modi is apprehensive about how he is being perceived by his supporters? The Right-wing ecosystem was upset that once the military operations were launched against Pakistan, India did not capture Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). When the government claimed every evening from May 7 to 10 in its media briefings that the Indian armed forces were winning, virtually destroying Pakistan’s military defences, the government’s suddenly agreeing to a ceasefire was baffling to them.

No explanations mattered that the ceasefire was sought by a demoralised Pakistan or was a response to Donald Trump’s threats and trade incentives. They were disappointed that India agreed to silence its war machine.

To sell the government’s military and political strategy to his supporters, Modi had to manufacture an appropriate public stance. The fighting words against Pakistan aim to satisfy his Right-wing supporters. His promise that military action will continue, feeds the hostility and tension between the two countries that his supporters thrive on. Operation Sindoor, till today, is labelled an ongoing military operation.

The promise of continuing action and a long war will sustain belief among his supporters that Modi’s aggressive style of leadership is relevant and necessary. It also helps the government dodge probing questions in Parliament as it can hide behind not compromising an ongoing operation. It can then refuse to provide any details, e.g. how many fighter jets, if any, India lost on the first night of the conflict?

The moot question, however, is: Are such domestic pressures from his Right-wing supporters likely to push the two countries into another round of military confrontation? Aggressive rhetoric must not be allowed to fuel hostility and exacerbate tensions while hiding governance shortcomings at home — Pahalgam, after all, is not in Pakistan.

(Bharat Bhushan is a New Delhi-based journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.