Does bypoll win signal shifting support base for Congress?

After a resounding victory in the recently concluded assembly by-elections in Karnataka, the ruling Congress is riding a wave of renewed confidence. In stark contrast, both the Bharatiya Janata Party and Janata Dal (Secular), which suffered humiliating defeats, are grappling with internal turmoil. This is concerning because a weak opposition could embolden the government to adopt an increasingly authoritarian approach, undermining democratic accountability and ultimately affecting the common citizen.

While it is not unusual for a ruling party to perform well in by-elections, the significance of these results cannot be overstated. The three constituencies that went to polls—Channapatna, Shiggaon, and Sandur—represent key demographic groups: Vokkaligas, Lingayats, and Scheduled Tribes, respectively. Historically, the Vokkaliga community has been a JD(S) stronghold, while Lingayats have traditionally supported the BJP. The Congress views this outcome as an endorsement by these influential groups, signalling a shift in their support.

The Congress not only retained Sandur but also wrested Channapatana from JD(S) and Shiggaon from the BJP. This is a significant blow to two former chief ministers, H D Kumaraswamy and Basavaraj Bommai, whose sons lost in their respective constituencies. Many see this as a befitting rejection of ‘dynastic politics’.

The Congress considers this victory a validation of its governance model, particularly its welfare schemes, and a rejection of corruption allegations against the government. This has sparked a surge of optimism within the party, with some leaders even predicting a landslide win in the 2028 elections.

JD(S) in turmoil

On the JD(S) front, internal bickering has been simmering for some time, particularly over the party’s preferential treatment of the Gowda family. Kumaraswamy’s son, Nikhil Kumaraswamy, was given the ticket to contest from Channapatna despite losing two consecutive elections. This decision caused resentment within the party, with many questioning its dynastic leadership. 

Speculation is rife that the JD(S) might split, with some of its MLAs possibly aligning with the Congress. While the Congress is in a comfortable position in the Assembly and does not currently need smaller parties’ support, any further disintegration of JD(S) could have broader political ramifications.

BJP: a divided house

The byelection results have exposed deep fractures within the BJP, especially regarding the state unit president B Y Vijayendra’s leadership. Critics, including Basanagouda Patil Yatnal, have publicly accused Vijayendra of corruption during his father B S Yediyurappa’s tenure as chief minister. Vijayendra’s perceived impatience to ascend to the chief minister’s post has also led to several missteps. 

Some leaders argue that the BJP’s failure to highlight key corruption issues, such as the Rs 90 crore scam in the Karnataka Maharshi Valmiki ST Development Corporation—admitted by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah—has hurt the party politically. 

Parallel protests over the Wakf controversy by dissident BJP leaders have further exposed the party’s internal rifts, projecting the party as a divided house and undermining its role as the principal opposition.

The BJP high command has finally intervened after previously handling Yatnal with caution due to his influence within the powerful Panchamasali sect of the Lingayat community. It is also rumoured that the
BJP leadership might even be indirectly backing Yatnal as a counterbalance to Yediyurappa’s influence.

However, the BJP’s problems in Karnataka run deeper than Vijayendra’s leadership. Over the years, the party has transformed from a disciplined, cadre-based organisation to a splintered, power-hungry entity. This has led to the emergence of multiple power centres, each led by influential leaders often pursuing personal agendas. With factionalism plaguing the party, the BJP is struggling to maintain coherence and internal discipline. 

Additionally, its strained relationship with coalition partner JD(S) has further widened the gap between the two parties.

While the fragmented opposition is concerning, an even more alarming trend is the prevalence of ‘adjustment politics’ in the state—collusion between parties and politicians for mutual gain, often at the expense of public interest. There are whispers that the Congress deliberately fielded a weak candidate to enable Vijayendra’s victory in Shikaripura during the 2023 general elections. Furthermore, Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) President D K Shivakumar recently revealed some BJP leaders supported Congress in the Channapatna by-elections.

Such backroom deals erode trust in the political system and foster a climate where politicians prioritise personal interests over public welfare. The internal bickering within the opposition and cross-party collusion do not bode well for the state. 

Despite these challenges, BJP leaders like Chalavadi Narayanawamy have emerged as a strong voice in Karnataka politics. As opposition leader in the legislative council, he has been consistently questioning the government, especially the chief minister.

The current state of opposition in Karnataka is deeply concerning. A functioning democracy requires a robust opposition to hold the government accountable. Regardless of how effective the ruling party may be, it must face a vigilant and well-organised opposition capable of scrutinising its decisions and safeguarding public interest. Without this, the government risks becoming complacent, misusing its mandate for its own benefit, rather than addressing the genuine concerns of citizens. This could lead to poor governance, corruption, and eroded faith in democratic institutions.

Ultimately, a united opposition is essential for good governance and the health of democracy in Karnataka. The state’s political future hinges not only on the ruling party but also on a revitalised opposition that can effectively confront the government and ensure that it remains answerable to the people.

(The writer is a senior journalist and political commentator)