ED summons to Gandhis hint at BJP's post-Hindutva strategy

With Hindutva showing diminishing returns, BJP has resorted to the issue of 'probity in public life' to weaken opposition

In a democratic polity, success often depends on being ingenious in selecting issues that may sway the minds of the voters. It does not matter whether the issue is real, partially accurate, or even made-up. What matters is whether or not it is convincing. And who does not know Narendra Modi is a shrewd leader? For context, let's look at the recent Enforcement Directorate (ED) notices to Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi from a wide-angle.

The RSS propped up Modi as an icon of Hindutva, and Modi added to it the development plank, showcasing the Gujarat model. But now, both have become ineffectual. Modi is not left with many old issues in his arsenal that are still capable of swaying people's minds.

So, what can be a better option for Modi than reviving the 'probity at highest places' plank, first used by former prime minister V P Singh more than three decades ago against the same Gandhi family? The ED notices to the Gandhis could help him exhume a dead issue.

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This probity issue is a favourite of Modi because it allows him to refurbish his 'pracharak' image. He tried it with demonetisation. Then, he claimed many tall things, but it ended in a fiasco due to the government's massive failure. It could unearth black money worth merely Rs 15,000 crore, similar to what is unearthed almost every year.

Since then, Modi has never mentioned the issue again, which is tantamount to an admission of his failure. However, the collateral damage of the 2016 drive was heavy. In 2019-20, the year before the pandemic, India's growth rate slipped to less than 4 per cent, the lowest in the last one-and-a-half decades. But the whirlwind of the pandemic has helped to wash it from public memory.

Ironically, the same pandemic has also turned the dream of achche din into a mirage. With high inflation and unemployment rate and the economy just about recovering now to reach the 2019 levels, the government has little to offer to the people. Even the benefits of the much-touted Ujjwala scheme are nullified with the poor reverting to traditional firewood due to the exorbitant price of cooking gas and kerosene.

Hindutva, the political movement aimed at using the Hindus as a vote bank, is also becoming a thorn in the flesh of the BJP with the demand to convert mosques to original temples raising its head in different places. The ruling party is trying to contain the demand to only three disputed places (Ayodhya, Kashi and Mathura) and resolving it through the courts. But fringe elements are getting involved to widen the scope, forcing Mohan Bhagwat, the sarsanghchalak of the RSS, to come out in public to criticise such attempts. Under the circumstances, Modi needs an issue to divert people's attention to something else, which will fire up people's imagination. Probity in the highest places fits in this.

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The advantage of digging up such an issue is that people do not expect an outcome in the short-term, like two years, due to our slow judicial process. What is needed is a watertight case that the court will not throw away immediately. If that can be achieved, a mandate for 'pursuing the cases to their logical end' can be sought. Again, if the court throws it away within a few months, people's memory is short, and something more ingenious can replace it.

Another advantage is if the tallest family in the opposition camp can be questioned, it will create panic among the other opposition parties. The arrest of Satyendar Jain, a minister in the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)-run Delhi government, by the ED in a money laundering case has sent ripples in the opposition camp. Perhaps the next target is the Trinamool Congress, which is vulnerable as far corruption cases are concerned.

There are several ongoing investigations by the CBI and ED in West Bengal that it has become almost impossible to keep tabs on them. The infamous Saradha and other chit fund cases, Narada, cattle smuggling, coal smuggling, and the recent School Service Commission employment scam are just a few of such ongoing probes in Bengal.

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It would not be wrong to surmise that the pace of the investigation in all such Bengal cases will now be accelerated. It has the potential to reach up to a lot many TMC leaders, MPs, ministers and district-level leaders. As West Bengal has 42 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP will likely try to demoralise the TMC top brasses before 2024.

Altogether, it seems the ED notices to the Gandhis is a calculated step and a curtain-raiser to a bigger game. But how far it will be pushed through depends on the evolving political situation.

Though Modi still enjoys the benefit of the TINA (there is no alternative) factor until now, the present political landscape of Bengal and Maharashtra (the two states together send a sixth of the Lok Sabha MPs) stands as a substantial hurdle for the BJP in securing a simple majority in the House. So, it is in dire need of something that will help it overcome the obstacle.

(Diptendra Raychaudhuri is a journalist and author based in Kolkata)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.