There has been a dangerous escalation in the situation in eastern Europe in recent days. On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin upped the ante by recognising the independence of separatist regions in Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. With that, Putin also directed Russian troops to occupy the area for what he described as “peacekeeping functions”. American President Joe Biden described Putin’s moves as "the beginning of a Russian invasion” of Ukraine and announced a "first tranche" of sanctions against Russia, targeting Russian banks, oligarchs, political elites and their families. American officials say that the sanctions are "only the sharp edge of the pain” they can inflict and that they are ready to go further should an armed invasion of Ukraine materialise. However, does the US have the stomach for a fight? While Biden announced the movement of additional troops and equipment to "strengthen" US allies in the Baltic nations on NATO's eastern flank, he clarified that he has “no intention of fighting Russia.” The US and Soviet/Russian forces have never fought each other directly since the dawn of the nuclear age. The closest they came to doing so was during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
What is at stake is not just Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity but America’s global leadership. Is it willing now to act to enforce the global rules-based order it has underwritten so far? Its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan last year fuelled a perception of the US as a Superpower on the decline that is no longer able to enforce order. Ukraine may not be a formal ally of the US, not yet a part of NATO. Yet, whether the US will act resolutely to defend it is being keenly watched. Importantly, will the US show leadership against illegal annexations and aggression? The Russian action in Ukraine sets a bad precedent as other powers, such as China or Pakistan, for example, could be tempted to use it to occupy territories they covet. American leadership is being tested.
Although China has not endorsed Russia’s move on Ukraine, the US-Russia faceoff in eastern Europe has not only brought Moscow and Beijing closer but it will also work to China’s advantage. It will take US attention off China and the Indo-Pacific for a while. There is a concern in Taiwan that China could invade the island while the US is preoccupied with the Ukraine crisis. India, too, should be on its guard. After all, it was when the US and the Soviet Union were preoccupied over the Cuban Missile Crisis that China chose to attack India in 1962. The fallout of events unfolding in eastern Europe will be felt in distant lands too.