There was no single political message from the results of the by-elections to seven seats held in six states across the country last week. All of them were Assembly seats and so the political dynamics of the states where the elections were held and the situation in the particular constituencies decided the nature of the contests and their outcome. Their relevance to national or state-level trends may be limited, but they gave some indications of people’s mood. They also showed the new electoral alliance I.N.D.I.A taking on the BJP and equations among political parties changing from state to state. The Opposition parties won four of the seven contests, and the BJP three. The Opposition parties would be happy with their performance because they are planning to put up a united fight against the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha elections. They also have high stakes in the Assembly elections to five states that are to be held soon.
One important contest was in Ghosi, Uttar Pradesh, where the Samajwadi Party (SP) defeated the BJP decisively. The SP was supported by the Congress and the CPM, and it was the first election in which the newly-formed I.N.D.I.A took on the BJP and came out victorious. The BJP had campaigned hard in the election, which was considered to be a prestigious contest. The voting pattern showed that a substantial section of Dalits may have supported the SP candidate. If this marks a trend, it will be electorally significant in UP. Another contest which would give cheer to the Opposition was in Uttarakhand, where the Congress gave a tough fight to the BJP in the latter’s stronghold, Bageshwar. The BJP won the seat but with a substantially reduced majority.
The contradictions in the I.N.D.I.A grouping also came to the fore in two constituencies in different states. In Dhupguri, West Bengal, two I.N.D.I.A constituents, the Congress and the CPM, put up a joint fight against a major I.N.D.I.A partner, the Trinamool Congress, but could not make an impact. In Puthupally, Kerala, the CPM and the Congress fought each other in an election caused by the death of former Chief Minister Oommen Chandy. The Congress won an impressive victory powered not only by a sympathy wave but also an anti-incumbency sentiment against the Pinarayi Vijayan government in the state. In Tripura, the ruling BJP defeated the CPM in two seats, Boxanagar and Dhanpur, where other Opposition parties, including the Congress, refrained from contesting. The CPM has made serious allegations of electoral malpractices against the BJP in the state. Tripura has seen charges of violence and malpractices in the past, but this time they are more serious.