New Syria will alter power-play in region

The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and the deposed president’s escape to asylum in Russia, have set off scenes that may seem from any country celebrating the overthrow of a long, oppressive regime. However, what preceded the toppling of Assad was strikingly unfamiliar. The offensive of rebel groups led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) started in the northern province of Idlib and advanced through cities, in just under two weeks, to enter Damascus and unseat a 24-year rule, ending a 13-year civil war. A combination of internal and geopolitical factors made the rebel advances significantly easier. The weakened Syrian forces failed to offer a formidable resistance. Critically, this time, there was no impactful Russian intervention that could crush the opposition fighters because Moscow is too deep in the war with Ukraine. Iran, the other key Assad ally, was also severely enfeebled by Israeli strikes and in no position to send in fighters.

Assad led a brutal regime that did not tolerate dissent. He oversaw a violent suppression of protests in 2011; the subsequent civil war killed more than half a million people, left more than six million refugees, and exposed Syria to external powers, allowing them to further their interests through proxy wars. However, if the strife that followed the Arab-Spring toppling of authoritarian regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Libya is indicative, the optimism can do with some caution. Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the HTS chief, has called this a victory for all Syrians. al-Jolani who has a past in al-Qaeda now speaks a language of reconciliation but HTS is considered a terrorist outfit by the US and the European Union. With other rebel groups in the fray, hurdles remain for the transition of power.

The West, and countries in the region will watch the new powers closely, amid threats to the minorities, and fears of a consolidation of militant groups. Turkey, which hosts more than 3.2 million Syrian refugees, has said that the displaced millions can return home. Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu have underscored the roles the US and Israel, respectively, played in events that led to the rebels’ takeover of Damascus. Israel will stake claim by pitching its recent attacks that blunted Iran and its proxy Hezbollah, in Lebanon. The rebels’ victory dents the global-force posture of Russia, which has been aiding Assad militarily since 2015. Iran will suffer the bigger fallout because Assad-run Syria was its link to Hezbollah; the axis of resistance it helmed against US and Israel now stands fractured. For Syria, Assad’s ouster is a decisive restart with far-reaching regional implications but its efforts towards stability will be influenced by an interplay of multiple interests and powers including the US, under Donald Trump.