Widening of conflict is not in our interest

The Iran-Pak flare-up must be contained before it engulfs region

Iran's surprising missile and drone attacks inside Pakistan, targeting a Sunni extremist group seeking to break away Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province, and the retaliatory strikes by Pakistan, targeting purported Pakistani Baloch separatist hideouts inside Iran, has led to an unforeseen escalation of tensions between the two neighbours. This is not the first time that Iran has taken on the Pakistan-based Jaish-ul-Adl, but earlier raids were low-key and took place close to their shared border. This is the first time that Iran has used sophisticated weapons and hit deep inside Pakistan. Tehran has long been issuing warnings to Pakistan against the activities of this group. In February 2019, JuA claimed the killing of 27 Islamic Revolutionary Guards, Iran's elite commando force, by a suicide bomber who drove an explosives-packed vehicle into a security convoy. A month ago, the group claimed an attack on a police station in Sistan-Baluchistan that killed 11 policemen. 

Iran has been on edge ever since the Israel-Hamas war started, which, as it drags on, is threatening to draw in Tehran. In Lebanon, its proxy Hezbollah and Israel are engaged in low-intensity battles. In Yemen, the Houthis, another Iranian proxy, have effectively blocked shipping in the strategic Red Sea with their missile attacks on commercial liners. In a move that would have alarmed Iran, the US has gathered a coalition of Western navies to take on the Houthis and the US and UK have hit targets in Yemen. Earlier this month, 97 Iranians were killed in an attack on a memorial event for Gen. Qassem Soleimani, a celebrated military commander who was assassinated by the US with a drone strike in 2020. Along with the strikes in Pakistan, Iran also carried out strikes against alleged Israeli-Mossad assets in Iraq and Syria, apparently to warn that it has the capability to take on enemies in diverse regions at the same time. The regime might have made some domestic political calculations, too. 

The unusual clubbing by Iran of its enemies in Pakistan with those in Syria and Iraq suggests a belief in Tehran that the Pakistani military allows the JuA to flourish at the behest of higher powers. Thus far, Iran and Pakistan had described their ties as “brotherly”, and managed their tensions, keeping ties cordial. But the tit-for-tat attacks have exposed the fault-lines. Any further escalation may lead to the targeting of Pakistani Shia by extremist groups like the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. After its retaliatory strikes, the Pakistani military has called for “dialogue and cooperation”. China, friends with both, has also called for restraint. The hostilities may end, but Pakistan-Iran ties have clearly changed forever. How it might affect the fortunes of the deeply unpopular Pakistan Army chief Gen. Asim Munir and the Pakistan Army remains to be seen. This is the third time since 2011 that a foreign power has staged an attack deep inside Pakistan, showing the Pakistani military in unflattering light. But as with the US stealth operation to take out Osama bin Laden, and India's Balakot strike, such actions also tend to help the Pakistani military shore up support. India must exert to prevent a widening conflict that could engulf the whole region, whose larger consequences would outweigh any pleasure obtained from scoring a narrow point against Pakistan.