Normal monsoon in abnormal times?

The forecast of a normal monsoon is good news for a country whose farm economy is largely dependent on it, though the larger economy is influenced by other major factors. The monsoon is important because it has a bearing on the lives and livelihood of the majority of people in the villages. So, the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) prediction that the country will have a normal monsoon this year is welcome, but the implications are likely to be different this year when the country is facing a serious threat from the Covid-19 pandemic. This is the IMD’s preliminary forecast and it has projected a total rainfall of 88 cm, which is 100% of the Long Period Average. It is not always that the IMD makes a correct forecast. Last year, it predicted a near-normal monsoon but the country had excess rainfall, which was the highest in 25 years. So, the prediction needs to be taken only as indicative.

Governments make preparations every year on the basis of the monsoon forecast, sometimes by planning steps to tackle floods or at other times by initiating early measures to mitigate the effects of droughts caused by the inadequacy of the monsoon. But this year, the situation is different because all the governments and their agencies are busy with the fight against Covid-19. The fight is bound to continue till June, when the monsoon is set to start in the subcontinent, and even beyond that. When the economy is in a bad state and the officials and even the whole population are involved in the campaign against the pandemic, there will be a lot of uncertainty about all other activities. Though the restrictions on agricultural activities have been eased, there are issues relating to transportation and labour shortages. Some farmers have not sold their rabi produce and are short of funds. Those who cultivated perishable produces have lost their capital. If the kharif sowing gets delayed because of the lockdown, the advantage of a normal monsoon may be lost.

These uncertainties have also got to be factored into the planning about the monsoon. This is the time when governments usually start their pre-monsoon work of resurfacing of roads, desilting, etc., to avoid accidents, flooding and other monsoon-related calamities. Seeds, fertilisers, etc., will have to be readied for distribution and farm equipment will have to be serviced for work. Governments will have to pay attention to all these even while they are busy with the task of containing the pandemic. In this situation, even a normal monsoon casts a lot of special responsibilities on governments. A deficient or above-normal monsoon will make things much more difficult.