Setbacks for BJP, gains for Congress

Regional parties won half the seats in bypolls

There is no big national message from the results of the by-elections held in different states on Monday, but there are clear messages from some states which may have an impact beyond them. The by-elections were held in 13 states with diverse political scenarios and so it is not right to expect them to present the same electoral behaviour. But one common trend seen across elections is that the ruling party of the state generally wins by-elections, especially when they are held in the first two-three years of its coming to power. When a ruling party loses in by-elections in the second half of its tenure, that is a danger signal. That is why the drubbing the BJP received in Himachal Pradesh and its less-than-expected performance in Karnataka should serve as a warning to the party.

The BJP’s comprehensive loss to the Congress in four seats in Himachal Pradesh, including one for the Lok Sabha, is a major setback for the party. It raises questions about the leadership of Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur in the state which goes to polls next year. The results could also have an impact on the Assembly polls due in neighbouring Uttarakhand where, too, the BJP is in power. It will be a talking point in Punjab as well, though the BJP is not a force there. The BJP’s defeat in Hangal, Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai’s home district, is a setback for Bommai and for the party in Karnataka. The BJP also had setbacks in Rajasthan, where it lost a seat to the Congress, and in Haryana, where the Opposition INLD won a seat. In Madhya Pradesh, it won one Lok Sabha seat and one Assembly seat while losing another long-held Assembly seat to the Congress. But it can be happy with its performance in Assam, where it swept the polls with its allies, and in Telangana, where it won an upset victory against the TRS.

Ruling parties won in West Bengal and Bihar, with the Trinamool Congress drubbing the BJP in the former and the JD(U) winning both seats in the latter. The Opposition RJD or the Congress could have won one of the two seats if they had not parted ways after the last Assembly elections in Bihar. But there are other would-have-beens in seats and even states. Overall, the results present a mixed picture, with the BJP taking a knock in some states but showing its strength in others, and the Congress showing that reports of the party’s death may be highly exaggerated. It is also significant that out of 29 seats where the elections were held, the Congress won eight, the BJP seven, and 14 others were won by regional parties. There is a message in that, too.