<p>The monsoon, the lifeblood of India’s $4-trillion economy, delivers nearly 70% of the rainfall essential for irrigating farms and replenishing aquifers and reservoirs. More than half of the country’s farmland, without any irrigation cover, relies on these rains from June to September to cultivate a number of crops. Though the onset of the monsoon is a harbinger of good news, its fury is notorious for causing significant economic losses and loss of life. For instance, according to the International Disaster Database of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), between 2020 and 2024, monsoon-related disasters (cyclones, storms, floods, landslides etc) on an annual average claimed 1,497 lives and affected around 11.7 million people directly or indirectly, with an economic loss to the tune of $82,84,100.</p>.<p>In 2005, India developed a comprehensive institutional arrangement to deal with natural disasters. One of the most significant developments has been the Early Warning System, which enables stakeholders to anticipate and prepare for possible disasters.</p>.<p>This year, monsoon rains reached the state of Kerala on May 24, eight days earlier than usual, marking the earliest onset in 16 years, since May 23, 2009. The early onset of monsoon raises hopes of a bumper harvest on account of an extended crop growth period and, of course, offers relief from a gruelling heat wave. The monsoon has already covered Kerala and parts of neighbouring Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, as well as parts of the northeastern state of Mizoram. Further, conditions are favourable for the monsoon’s further progression into Goa, parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, the northeastern states, West Bengal and the remaining parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.</p>.<p>Despite two decades of the existence of disaster management authorities — the National Disaster Management Authority and State Disaster Management Authorities — the early onset of monsoon has caught authorities off guard, as witnessed by the recent floods in Bengaluru. The chief of the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) stated that the city’s machinery was not prepared for the early monsoon onset, a clear indication of the suboptimal level of the Early Warning System and preparedness of the stakeholders concerned. Authorities must give adequate attention to early warnings from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and take required measures to mitigate the impact of unexpected weather events.</p>.<p>Coming to rural India, the most critical aspect is the extent of rain-fed agriculture and the predominance of farmers with small and marginal landholding. Though the IMD has predicted that this hydrological year’s monsoon will be above normal, there is no guarantee that rainfall will be evenly spread to support optimal crop growth. Farmers, particularly in rain-fed regions, may rush to start sowing. However, any disruption in the monsoon, coupled with high ambient temperatures, may decrease soil moisture and adversely affect crop growth. Hence, the Department of Agriculture should communicate with the farming community about the optimum time for sowing.</p>.<p>On the other hand, excessive rainfall may promote weed growth, leading to higher input costs for cultivation. Both scenarios — either a break in the monsoon or excessive rains — require proactive measures from the Department of Agriculture. </p>.<p>In this context, it is time to improve the present model, wherein early warnings describe what the weather will be: for example, “heavy rains with strong winds”. Unfortunately, this information helps neither the departments concerned nor the farming community. On the other hand, Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) can provide information by explaining what the weather will do: for example, it can predict how many houses are likely to be damaged or how many acres may be flooded based on expected rainfall on a given day. It represents a significant step forward for early warning systems, ensuring that forecasts can be translated into targeted early actions.</p>.<p>In this way, impact-based forecasting can revolutionise the way we anticipate disasters and act to mitigate the impacts of weather and climate events. The adoption of Anticipatory Actions as part of disaster management can further strengthen IBF. Anticipatory Actions refer to actions taken to reduce the humanitarian impacts of a hazard before it occurs or before its most severe impacts are felt. The decision to take action is based on a forecast or collective risk analysis of when, where and how an event will unfold (IFRC 2020).</p>.<p>The goal at the core of anticipatory action is humanitarian: saving lives and livelihoods and reducing losses and suffering.</p>.<p>Until genuine efforts are made to improve the current disaster management model, the monsoon — like every other year — will continue to leave its negative footprint on our society and economy. </p>.<p><em>(The writers are with the Institute for Social and Economic Change, <br>Bengaluru)</em></p>
<p>The monsoon, the lifeblood of India’s $4-trillion economy, delivers nearly 70% of the rainfall essential for irrigating farms and replenishing aquifers and reservoirs. More than half of the country’s farmland, without any irrigation cover, relies on these rains from June to September to cultivate a number of crops. Though the onset of the monsoon is a harbinger of good news, its fury is notorious for causing significant economic losses and loss of life. For instance, according to the International Disaster Database of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), between 2020 and 2024, monsoon-related disasters (cyclones, storms, floods, landslides etc) on an annual average claimed 1,497 lives and affected around 11.7 million people directly or indirectly, with an economic loss to the tune of $82,84,100.</p>.<p>In 2005, India developed a comprehensive institutional arrangement to deal with natural disasters. One of the most significant developments has been the Early Warning System, which enables stakeholders to anticipate and prepare for possible disasters.</p>.<p>This year, monsoon rains reached the state of Kerala on May 24, eight days earlier than usual, marking the earliest onset in 16 years, since May 23, 2009. The early onset of monsoon raises hopes of a bumper harvest on account of an extended crop growth period and, of course, offers relief from a gruelling heat wave. The monsoon has already covered Kerala and parts of neighbouring Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, as well as parts of the northeastern state of Mizoram. Further, conditions are favourable for the monsoon’s further progression into Goa, parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, the northeastern states, West Bengal and the remaining parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.</p>.<p>Despite two decades of the existence of disaster management authorities — the National Disaster Management Authority and State Disaster Management Authorities — the early onset of monsoon has caught authorities off guard, as witnessed by the recent floods in Bengaluru. The chief of the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (BBMP) stated that the city’s machinery was not prepared for the early monsoon onset, a clear indication of the suboptimal level of the Early Warning System and preparedness of the stakeholders concerned. Authorities must give adequate attention to early warnings from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and take required measures to mitigate the impact of unexpected weather events.</p>.<p>Coming to rural India, the most critical aspect is the extent of rain-fed agriculture and the predominance of farmers with small and marginal landholding. Though the IMD has predicted that this hydrological year’s monsoon will be above normal, there is no guarantee that rainfall will be evenly spread to support optimal crop growth. Farmers, particularly in rain-fed regions, may rush to start sowing. However, any disruption in the monsoon, coupled with high ambient temperatures, may decrease soil moisture and adversely affect crop growth. Hence, the Department of Agriculture should communicate with the farming community about the optimum time for sowing.</p>.<p>On the other hand, excessive rainfall may promote weed growth, leading to higher input costs for cultivation. Both scenarios — either a break in the monsoon or excessive rains — require proactive measures from the Department of Agriculture. </p>.<p>In this context, it is time to improve the present model, wherein early warnings describe what the weather will be: for example, “heavy rains with strong winds”. Unfortunately, this information helps neither the departments concerned nor the farming community. On the other hand, Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) can provide information by explaining what the weather will do: for example, it can predict how many houses are likely to be damaged or how many acres may be flooded based on expected rainfall on a given day. It represents a significant step forward for early warning systems, ensuring that forecasts can be translated into targeted early actions.</p>.<p>In this way, impact-based forecasting can revolutionise the way we anticipate disasters and act to mitigate the impacts of weather and climate events. The adoption of Anticipatory Actions as part of disaster management can further strengthen IBF. Anticipatory Actions refer to actions taken to reduce the humanitarian impacts of a hazard before it occurs or before its most severe impacts are felt. The decision to take action is based on a forecast or collective risk analysis of when, where and how an event will unfold (IFRC 2020).</p>.<p>The goal at the core of anticipatory action is humanitarian: saving lives and livelihoods and reducing losses and suffering.</p>.<p>Until genuine efforts are made to improve the current disaster management model, the monsoon — like every other year — will continue to leave its negative footprint on our society and economy. </p>.<p><em>(The writers are with the Institute for Social and Economic Change, <br>Bengaluru)</em></p>