Hubris killed Samajwadi Party in its political bastions

Akhilesh opted not to campaign in Azamgarh or Rampur because he felt it was 'below his dignity'

Overconfidence seems to have killed the Samajwadi Party in its two political bastions – Rampur and Azamgarh – where it lost miserably to the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in crucial bypolls to the two important Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh.

What led to this disaster for the party that had managed to rise from its humiliating defeat in 2017, when it won only 46 seats in the 403-member UP house, to a respectable level of 111 (125 with allies) in 2022?

Visibly, it appears to be the "one-man show" in SP that has brought things to such a pass in the bypolls. With the defeat, Samajwadi Party might have created a history of sorts. It is unusual for ruling parties to score victories in bypolls when the opposition gets the upper hand. Indeed, this bypoll result is a bigger blow to the SP.

On the other hand, it adds a feather to the ruling BJP's cap and, more particularly, brings further laurels to Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who has proclaimed the two victories as a "win" for his "good governance". Some have termed the wins a referendum for Adityanath's much-hyped "development" politics.

The Samajwadi Party's debacle in these two parliamentary constituencies becomes more significant as this was the first time the party's lethal combination of Muslim-Yadav votes had failed on its home turf. While Rampur has a 60 per cent Muslim population, the Muslim-Yadav combine has traditionally dominated the political turf of Azamgarh.

The two Lok Sabha seats were earlier held by SP stalwarts Akhilesh Yadav and Azam Khan. They have been jolted by the devastating defeat that came with the announcement of the poll result on Sunday. Akhilesh had won the 2019 Lok Sabha election from Azamgarh, while Azam Khan had bagged the Rampur seat in a straight contest with the BJP. The bye-elections followed the decision of the two SP leaders to opt for their respective state assembly seats after the 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections.

Read | Murder of democracy under BJP rule, says Akhilesh Yadav on Uttar Pradesh bypoll results

In Rampur, perhaps Azam Khan's overconfidence brought the party to the most unexpected defeat. Azam Khan was more than confident of ensuring victory for anyone fielded by him. The source of his confidence was his influence in the constituency and the wave of sympathy he expected for himself for his 27-month-long incarceration in jail after the Yogi Adityanath government slapped more than 80 criminal cases against him.

Azam Khan fielded his close confidante Aseem Raza in the hope that he would easily sail through but received the biggest shock of his life when the results came out. BJP's Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi managed to win with a relatively high margin of 42,200 votes. Sharp polarisation and substantial consolidation of Hindu votes in Lodhi's favour were crucial reasons for the defeat of Azam Khan's nominee, who could not enlist even marginal non-Muslim support. The Yadav population in Rampur is relatively insignificant. Therefore, the BJP's deft selection of a candidate from the Lodhi backward community enlisted the chunk support of all non-Yadav OBCs.

An agitated Azam Khan may blame it all on the ruling dispensation, as he has alleged manipulation in the polling process. Still, the truth is that his political empire is crumbling right before his eyes.

As for Azamgarh, Akhilesh Yadav had resigned from where his father Mulayam Singh Yadav had won the 2014 Lok Sabha election. He, therefore, could not even remotely imagine the defeat of his nominee, his first cousin, Dharmendra Yadav. Azamgarh stood with the Yadav clan for several elections, and even in the last state assembly election in March 2022, this was among the very few districts where the SP won hands down on each of its 10 Vidhan Sabha seats.

According to SP insiders, Akhilesh chose not to campaign either in Azamgarh or in Rampur simply because he felt it was "below his dignity" to campaign for bypolls where the top BJP leaders had not cared to go. However, Yogi Adityanath eventually went to campaign there, but even that did not prod Akhilesh to take a plunge onto ground zero. Insiders also admit that getting bogged down by his ego has been a frequent issue with the SP chief ever since he lost the 2017 election. What made it worse after the 2022 elections, when his party's tally rose from 46 (in 2017) to 111 (in 2022), was that his sycophants removed him further away from ground reality.

Akhilesh did not care even to gauge the actual position in Azamgarh and made a big mistake of fielding his uncle's son, who was earlier the MP from Badaun and had no past connection with Azamgarh. The earlier plan was to field his wife, Dimple Yadav, but he kept her away for some reason. "If Dimple had contested the election, the Muslim vote in Azamgarh would not have got divided," claimed a party insider on condition of anonymity.

The BJP's choice of fielding Dinesh Lal Yadav alias 'Nirhua' was strategic. And what served their purpose was Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati's decision to field a well-known Muslim, Shah Alam alias 'Guddu Jamali' from the area. That not only made it a triangular contest but also brought about the division of the Muslim vote, which eventually ensured a clear victory for the BJP candidate.

Jamali has a fascinating political past. He had walked out of the BSP in November 2021 and sought an SP ticket to contest the Mubarakpur assembly seat in Azamgarh in March 2022. But Akhilesh did not consider him suitable enough, so Jamali switched loyalties to Asaduddin Owasi's AIMIM, only to lose the election. Mayawati handpicked him for the Azamgarh Lok Sabha as soon as the bypolls were announced.

Undoubtedly, Akhilesh also remained blissfully unaware of the apparent underhand deals that were being struck between the BSP and BJP. Sitting in his ivory tower, he seemed satisfied with issuing tweets and making statements on social media. While not caring to learn from his mistakes in March 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections, when he could have performed better than what he did, the SP chief failed to rise to the occasion and take the bull by its horns.

If it was his over-confidence, it was also apparently his habit of allowing himself to be surrounded by 'yes men' that has propelled the party to such a disaster, from which it may not be easy for him to spring back – at least before the far more crucial 2024 elections, that will determine the political destiny of the country.

(Sharat Pradhan is a journalist and author based in Lucknow)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.