India, China silently compete in Myanmar

Beijing’s approach to Myanmar’s junta is giving its military leadership a diplomatic space (and legitimacy) which is not offered by other countries, India included.

Myanmar military leader Min Aung Hlaing paid a three-day visit to Southwest China's Kunming city abutting Myanmar to attend the eighth Greater Mekong Subregion Summit from November 6 to 7. Although it was not a State visit, on the sidelines of the summit, he met Chinese Premier Li Qiang, state councillor and Secretary-General of China's Cabinet, the State Council, Wu Zhenglong, and regional leadership of Yunnan province, which shares borders with Myanmar, and has been at the receiving end of refugees and trade disruptions owing to hostilities across the border in the war-torn country.

On November 4 and 5, the Indian Council of World Affairs, a government-funded think tank in New Delhi, hosted a 17-member delegation of members of Myanmarese military, civil society, and political parties associated with Myanmar's military junta. As per media reports, New Delhi has invited a similar delegation comprising anti-junta forces in the coming times. 

The two meetings underline the silent competition between India and China to shape the dynamics of Myanmar's civil war. In the absence of significant Western interests to intervene in ongoing chaos, India and China, apart from ASEAN countries, are the only players with substantial stakes due to their shared borders with the country and spillover effects across their respective borders.

Ironically, despite conflicting interests, both countries approach the conflict similarly, and try to influence the same actors. Unlike the United States and its European allies, who have imposed sanctions and denied engaging with the junta, India and China engage with actors from all sides of the war.

New Delhi and Beijing have hosted various factions from both sides ever since the coup in early 2021. However, while engaging with the junta, China has been more forthright with hosting rebels, with whom it has deeper historical ties with ethnic rebels in northern Myanmar, unlike India, which has tilted towards an off-hand approach until recently.

China has struggled to balance between the military and rebel groups. While it has had historically strong ties with the rebel groups, especially in northern Myanmar, and works with them to facilitate trade and connectivity projects in territories with stronghold of these groups, it has supported the military for a long. However, on several occasions after the coup in February 2021, China showed its displeasure to the Myanmar military leadership by hosting rebels due to the former's supposed inaction on the safety and security of Chinese projects and labour and telecom fraud conducted by mafia gangs from safe heavens in Myanmar.

In that context, General Min Aung Hlaing's visit is significant for the following reasons. First, China sees the military as an essential part of any reconciliation process in the long term, despite setbacks in recent times against emboldened oppositional forces and weakening hold over key towns in Northern parts of the country. Li underlined the centrality of military in the political reconciliation. For, irrespective of the outcome of the conflict, the military is a critical player in ensuring the safety and security of Chinese personnel and projects, and helping China have influence in the strategically important neighbourhood.

Second, while these objectives are not new, the invitation to the regional summit suggests reworking the relationship with the junta causing frustration with and pressure on the military for a while. It also indicates that China is willing to do the bid to end the diplomatic isolation of the junta, especially with the ASEAN countries.

Meanwhile, the visit, although not a State visit to China, is also a significant relief for the junta, which has been marginalised diplomatically. While other countries would unlikely oppose China's approval to allow him to attend a regional forum dominated by China, the meeting can open diplomatic space for the military leadership.

On the other hand, by engaging with both sides of the conflict, India is significantly reorienting its approach. As a result, India and China are inadvertently in competition with each other to shape the outcome of the conflict. While engaging with all sides to bring everyone to the table is a welcome change from its off-hands approach, India needs to work with its ASEAN partners and prod the US and its allies to band together to support an inclusive reconciliation process in Myanmar.

(Devendra Kumar is associate fellow, Centre of Excellence for Himalayan Studies, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence, Delhi NCR.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.