Is Sadhvi Pragya the new ‘Muzaffarnagar' for BJP?

Will she do for the remaining rounds of the 2019 contest, particularly in parts of the Hindi heartland, what the Muzaffarnagar riots did in 2014?

The BJP’s decision to field Sadhvi Pragya Singh Thakur, a key accused in the 2008 Malegaon blast case, against Congress leader Digvijaya Singh in Bhopal is layered with many considerations.

It has naturally generated a howl of protest from Opponents because Sadhvi Pragya is facing serious allegations of murder and conspiracy and an attempt to spread terror and communal hatred under the Unlawful Activities(Prevention) Act, which are before the court.

Given the gravity of the charges against her, some in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are also reportedly uncomfortable with her choice, more so when the party has hyped its fight against terror as a major poll plank this time after Pulwama. The Sadhvi is out on bail and has not been acquitted as some others have, similarly accused of “Hindu terror” in other cases.

When Digvijaya Singh threw his hat in the ring from Bhopal, there was a buzz that former chief minister Shivraj Chouhan might take him on from the BJP. Even though Chouhan lost the Assembly election last November, his narrow defeat generated sympathy for him. But taking the risk of making him a potential giant killer, and one who is still well regarded and has fifteen years of administrative experience of running a large state like Madhya Pradesh, would have put him in an entirely different league, for any top leadership role in the future, were the situation to warrant it.

The BJP brass was not willing to go down that route, for obvious reasons. They would hardly encourage leaders who could even remotely challenge Narendra Modi at a future date. It is not without interest that soon after joining the BJP and agreeing to be the party’s candidate in Bhopal, the Sadhvi herself talked about seeking Shivraj Chouhan’s blessings.

It also goes without saying that Sadhvi Pragya will try and polarise the situation on Hindu-Muslim lines in Bhopal. The BJP is already condemning Digvijaya Singh for his remarks on “Hindu terror” (though it was Sushil Kumar Shinde who had made those comments first). In other words, to show that talking of “Hindu terror” was synonymous with being anti-Hindu and pro-Muslim.

In the coming days, the BJP can be expected to rake up Digvijaya Singh’s comments during the last decade (about Batla House, Azamgarh, reference to Osama Bin Laden as “Osamaji” and the like) to cast him as a “pro-Muslim” leader, so as to unite the Hindus against the former Chief Minister.

Over the years, Digvijaya Singh has enjoyed excellent relations with Hindu sants and seers, but he may have to battle a certain public perception which had grown about him following some of these remarks. However, during his recent-six month long Narmada Yatra, he recovered some of the lost ground, and the old Digvijaya Singh who had run the state with an even hand for a decade, had come to the fore again.

The import of fielding Sadhvi Pragya from Bhopal, however, goes beyond Bhopal. Will she do for the remaining rounds of the 2019 contest, particularly in parts of the Hindi heartland, what 'Muzaffarnagar' did in 2014?

The communal riot in the Western UP town of Muzafarnagar in 2013 had deepened the Hindu-Muslim divide in the entire state of Uttar Pradesh. Will Sadhvi Pragya also create a ripple effect in Bhopal which goes beyond it? Because every utterance of hers will generate a controversy, and the controversy can resonate beyond Bhopal in this day of media and connectivity.

The BJP is worried about the voter turnout having gone down this time compared to 2014, in places like UP and Bihar, where elections have already been held in the first two phases. It is also aware that in UP, for instance, Muslims and Dalits came out in large numbers to vote on the side of the Mahagathbandhan. This would go to show that the BJP supporters did not come out to vote as was expected. There are reports to indicate that traders, the traditional vote bank of the BJP, did not come out as they used to in constituencies like Meerut, Agra, Hathras, Ghaziabad where they exist in large numbers.

During the campaign, many in west UP would say that they expected some episode to take place nearer the voting date which would turn the narrative again towards a Hindu-Muslim discourse. This is the BJP’s tried and tested recipe to energise its vote bank and attract the floating voter, though Narendra Modi has hyped national security this time and also relied on his government’s pro-poor schemes (toilets, power, houses, gas cylinders, pensions) to see him through.

Can Sadhvi Pragya Thakur do the trick or is it a desperate move? While the Sadhvi has a propensity to create a Hindu-Muslim divide, a question that cannot be wished away is this: Will she become a double edged sword, and put off as many people as she pulls to her side? How will the vast mass of Hindus react to her shrill rhetoric? Given the BJP’s anti-terror stance—which gives Modi a ‘tough leader’ image—how will people take to the BJP fielding someone who has allegedly been involved in a terror act?

She will also have to contend with a politically savvy Digvijaya Singh. As for him, how he meets this challenge posed by her will also be lesson for his party, on how to counter the new attacks being mounted by the BJP.

(Neerja Chowdhury is a senior journalist and political commentator)