Job scam | Can Mamata Banerjee survive this storm?

With the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election less than a year away, the loss of 25,000 jobs could unravel Mamata Banerjee’s grip on her electoral base, while testing the political relevance in the BJP’s state leadership

In today’s India, every election for a politician or political party is a survival game; a trend which has intensified since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s relentless rise. In West Bengal, where Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) holds sway, a seismic jolt has struck. The Supreme Court’s recent verdict, scrapping over 25,000 teaching jobs tied to a fraudulent 2016 recruitment process, has thrust the TMC into crisis. With the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election less than a year away, this scandal could unravel Banerjee’s grip on her base — especially the middle class — while testing the BJP’s capacity to pounce, and her resilience to rebound.

The teachers’ recruitment scam cuts deep into the TMC’s foundation. Banerjee has long positioned herself as the voice of West Bengal’s ordinary folk, promising jobs and education. Her appeal spans the lower middle class to the elite, a coalition cemented during her tenure as MP from Kolkata Dakshin from 1991 to 2009. South Kolkata, a middle-class bastion, epitomised her support.

Yet, the Supreme Court’s ruling, echoing a Calcutta High Court finding of ‘tainted’ hiring, has upended that trust. Over 25,000 teachers and staff lost their livelihoods overnight. Multiply that by family members — say, four per household — and over a crore people feel the ripple. This isn’t just a job crisis; it’s a betrayal of aspirations, hitting hardest in rural hamlets and suburban towns where teaching posts meant security.

The urban middle class, particularly in Kolkata and its fringes, is reeling. This group — teachers, clerks, and upwardly mobile families — cherishes merit and education, pillars Banerjee once championed. Now, with schools disrupted and a tainted system exposed, their faith wavers. The arrest of Partha Chatterjee, a TMC heavyweight and former Cabinet minister, alongside evidence of rank-fixing and bribes, has sparked protests from sacked educators who claim they played by the rules. The 2024 Lok Sabha polls hinted at cracks: Though the TMC bagged 29 seats to the BJP’s 13, it trailed in 47 of Kolkata’s 144 municipal wards and lost two Assembly segments. The R G Kar rape-murder case, igniting middle-class fury, only deepened the unease.

Next year at the polls, this discontent could shift votes in the TMC strongholds. The party’s ‘Ma, Mati, Manush’ mantra feels empty when governance falters. Had Banerjee been in the Opposition, she’d have paralysed West Bengal with protests, as she did in Singur and Nandigram in 2007. But as the incumbent, she faces a muted Opposition. The Left is a shadow of its past, and the BJP, despite its clamour, lacks cohesion. BJP leaders Suvendu Adhikari and Sukanta Majumder have seized on the scam, demanding her resignation, and rallying supporters. The court’s ruling is a golden cudgel, exposing the TMC’s corruption to counter Banerjee’s anti-BJP narrative.

BJP’s prospects

Yet, the BJP’s prospects are shaky. Its West Bengal arm is fractious, missing a leader to match Banerjee’s charisma. Converting middle-class anger into votes demands more than outrage — it needs a vision, which the BJP struggles to craft.

In 2019, it won 18 Lok Sabha seats; by 2024, that fell to 12, reflecting organisational woes. Banerjee, meanwhile, thrives on polarisation, already hinting at a BJP-CPI(M) plot behind the court verdict. West Bengal’s electorate often closes ranks around her when she plays the victim, a tactic that could blunt the Opposition’s edge. The BJP’s 2026 gains hinge on unity and a compelling alternative — both currently elusive.

Three factors

Can Banerjee weather this storm? Three factors define her resilience. First, she’s a street fighter, excelling when cornered. She outlasted the Left’s assaults pre-2011 and dodged Sharada and Narada allegations, emerging stronger. Second, West Bengal’s poverty fuels reliance on her welfare schemes like Kanyashree and Lakshmir Bhandar, especially among women. These beneficiaries — millions strong — fear losing aid under a new regime, anchoring her base. Third, minorities, over 30% of voters, see the BJP as a threat to their survival, bolstering her appeal despite scandals.

The teachers’ scam, R G Kar protests, and governance lapses will sting. Over 25,000 jobless families and a crore affected could dent her urban vote. Yet, the Opposition would need to get its act right to topple her government.

Her response to the court verdict — meeting sacked teachers, and promising vacancies — shows she’s not down yet. This crisis tests not just the TMC, but Mamata Banerjee’s legacy as well. West Bengal watches, waiting to see if its ‘Didi’ can defy the odds.

(Sayantan Ghosh is a research scholar and teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. X: @sayantan_gh)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.