Simultaneous elections are just what Naveen Patnaik wants

Naveen Patnaik would prefer simultaneous elections as this would not give the BJP and the Congress the bandwidth to exclusively concentrate on Odisha in terms of manpower and resources.

Odisha's ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD), headed by Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, seems to be in favour of the Narendra Modi government’s ‘One Nation, One Election' (ONOE) campaign.

This is because Odisha has been having simultaneous Lok Sabha and assembly polls since 2004, and that has been working to Patnaik's advantage. In fact, he had the legislative assembly dissolved in February 2004, one year before his tenure was to end, and held simultaneous polls that summer. Back then the BJD was part of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the Centre. The BJD and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) severed ties in March 2009.

That the BJD is a strong votary of simultaneous polls can be gauged from the fact that it had approached the Election Commission of India (ECI) in 2018 seeking simultaneous polls amid speculations then that the Modi regime might advance the general elections. The BJD argued that such a move would save extra expenditure to the tune of almost Rs 1,000 crore. However, the elections were held as scheduled in April-May 2019.

Though not a part of the ruling NDA since 2009, the BJD has been extending support to it on almost all major issues in Parliament, especially since 2019. It supported the BJP nominee Ashwini Vaishnaw in getting elected to Rajya Sabha in 2019, and to the NDA’s presidential candidate Draupadi Murmu in 2022. The BJD stood behind the Modi government in passing the Delhi Ordinance Bill, and also opposed the recent no-confidence motion against the government.

Patnaik, who will be seeking the sixth consecutive term as Chief Minister in 2024, knows it well that simultaneous polls work in his favour as the BJD’s opponents — the BJP and the Congress — would not be able to concentrate on Odisha that accounts for only 21 Lok Sabha seats. The two parties virtually concede the electoral space to Patnaik whose charisma continues to have a firm grip over the state’s electorate. Patnaik would not like the assembly election to be held separately as it would give ample time to leaders of the two national parties to concentrate on the state, both in terms of manpower and resources.

Ever since the state has had simultaneous elections with the Centre, the BJD has been focusing on winning assembly polls. In 2019, Patnaik proved that national poll issues may not mar the prospects of a regional party. When a Modi wave swept across India ahead of the 2019 general elections, the people of Odisha voted in a manner that worked for the BJD. It bagged 112 of the 147 assembly seats, and 12 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats. The BJD’s performance was marginally better in 2014 when it won 117 assembly seats and 20 Lok Sabha seats.

A special session of Parliament has been convened from September 18 to 22. Interestingly, the monsoon session of the Odisha assembly has been scheduled from September 22 to October 4. Since there is speculation about an early general election, the state government has planned to place a supplementary budget in the assembly on October 3. Patnaik has already held a meeting with senior BJD leaders to review the party’s poll preparedness.

Irrespective of when the next general election is held, the BJD stands to gain if it is held simultaneously with the assembly polls. According to BJD insiders, the State would prefer to advance the assembly elections if there is such a move at the Centre.

The BJP might be the principal opposition in the state, but it is not considered as a serious rival to the BJD because the national party is seen as dependent on the BJD for support on crucial matters. Patnaik is believed to have good ties with the BJP leadership at the Centre, and this perception blunts the attacks by the state BJP unit against the BJD. 

The Congress in Odisha appears to be in disarray with its voting tally decreasing over the years. Its area of influence is restricted to few pockets in different regions, like the undivided Koraput district in southern Odisha and Bolangir in the western part of the state. Since 2000, the Congress has not been able to provide a strong state leadership to galvanise the party there.

The biggest advantage for the BJD is Patnaik’s unchallenged popularity. The Chief Minister has successfully implemented many welfare schemes across sectors; it has also revamped pilgrimage centres across the state thereby denying the BJP leverage there as well.

The anti-incumbency factor against Patnaik who has been in power for almost 24 years is also not gaining momentum because there is no tall state leader in the Opposition camp. The BJP depends on Modi’s popularity, and the hunt for an acceptable and popular state face continues.

Although the BJD was not very critical of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre, it has stayed away from the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) bloc for the reason that the Congress was its traditional rival in Odisha.

In Odisha, a triangular contest and simultaneous polls suits the BJD the most.

(Prafulla Das is a Bhubaneswar-based journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.