Post-Operation Sindoor blues dog Modi government

A result of the military operations against Pakistan is that India’s strategic vulnerabilities now stand exposed to the world.

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi tirelessly upspeaks Operation Sindoor, political signals suggest that globally he is considerably diminished. 

His voice was not sufficient to represent India internationally. Recognising that India’s voice must represent not one but a multiplicity of ideologies and communities, the all-party delegations of MPs selected to speak for India abroad were diverse. Among them were Muslims and a Christian, and between them they held many different political views: Marxist, Dravidian, Congress, etc.  

That Modi had to take this reality on board shows that his stature has eroded in the last 11 years. The prime minister, who treated the Opposition with disdain, had to host a dinner for the returning MPs who had spoken for his government abroad. 

Perhaps the hardest to swallow was that the result of the military operations is that India’s strategic vulnerabilities now stand exposed to the world. 

The self-proclaimed friendship and alliance with United States President Donald Trump has taken a visible knock. It would have been unthinkable earlier for External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to say, as he did recently, that India’s relationship with the US was “not about personality X or president Y.” 

Instead of backing India’s right to self-defence after the Pahalgam terror strike the US policy establishment adopted a cautious and neutral tone. Trump claimed that he used trade threats to force the ceasefire, and his offer to mediate on the Kashmir issue was a definite diplomatic setback. 

Nor did the US-sponsored Quad put its weight behind its member India. The group’s silence during the conflict was surprising because it was created to counter China’s influence in the region. Their refusal to criticise Pakistan, a frontline ally of China – clearly demonstrated that the Quad is nothing more than an instrument to push US interests. It may be futile to expect that it will speak up for any one of its other members.

Having put all its eggs in one basket, the Modi establishment is realising post Operation Sindoor that US strategic interests in Pakistan remain intact. If confirmation was needed, it came with the US describing Pakistan as a ‘phenomenal partner’ in counter-terrorism and inviting Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir to the Army Day parade celebrating the 250th anniversary of the US Army. 

So, while the US clearly did not have India’s back when needed, China backed Pakistan fully. The effective use of Chinese JF10 fighter jets and PL15 missiles by Pakistan against India underlines, if any proof was needed, how deep the strategic co-operation between the two countries is. While the US will always balance its relationship with India and Pakistan, China is under no such compulsion to play neutral. 

First in Galwan in 2020-2021 and now during the four-day India-Pakistan military conflict, China has demonstrated that it dominates the region. It has superior military technology and greater economic clout in the region than the US. The US itself has had to negotiate for trade peace with China to get access to its critical rare earth minerals. Even if the US wanted to help now, it may not be able to do much for India as Trump grows morally and politically weak.

As for India, it cannot cover gaps in its military equipment with US or Western help. China seems far ahead of them in critical areas, especially with AI-enabled weapon systems. India’s own capabilities also appear to be nowhere close to China’s.

While Indian youth has been diverted to detecting beef-eaters, cattle-traders, ‘anti-nationals’, and targeting the minorities, Chinese youth is achieving generational leaps in AI. Our educators have been ideologically brainwashed to the extent that some are trying to extract gold from cow-urine and others are plastering classrooms with cow-dung to counter extreme heat. India seems to be losing the war for shaping its future without even a stiff fight.

Strategically, China is virtually encircling India with India finding it difficult to counter Chinese influence even in Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. 

China is also trying to improve Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan. It is organising a trilateral meeting of the foreign ministers of China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan on May 21 in Beijing. It aims to encourage the exchange of ambassadors between the two countries, and improve their diplomatic ties;  and urging the Taliban to rein in the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan from conducting cross-border attacks in Pakistan.  The promise of extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan will be made to incentivise Afghanistan to maintain stability in the region. 

China has also supported Pakistan in taking over as Chair of the UN Security Council’s Taliban Sanctions Committee. As chair, Pakistan will be able to influence decisions related to Taliban-linked entities, and, thus, shape future ties with Afghanistan.

Accepting Chinese dominance in the region, it will come at a huge cost that would include beginning a dialogue with Pakistan (which the US will also support) and perhaps even relook at the decisions of August 5, 2019 on Jammu & Kashmir.

Meanwhile, the Modi establishment has not been able to arrest those responsible for the Pahalgam terrorist strike. Some names of those responsible have been released, but their veracity is difficult to judge.

Past experience may suggest that elements in Pakistan’s establishment are responsible, but what about the outcome of the investigations in India? No heads – either of those in the security establishment or those in-charge politically -- have rolled, for the intelligence failure leading to the terrorist strike. If the local population of Pahalgam and Kashmir is not offering any information to the investigators, how is India going to fight terrorism? 

This domestic vulnerability of the Modi government has become too apparent to the world – it is unable to conduct a transparent investigation or nab the culprits. Unless there is closure on the Pahalgam terror strike, one does not know what will happen if there is another terrorist strike. What if it is outside Kashmir? Who will be blamed, and against whom will the Indian armed forces be mobilised now that all acts of terror have been declared as acts of war?

Bharat Bhushan is a New Delhi-based journalist.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.