'Practical solutions should have been explored before imposing lockdown'

When Emperor Napoleon was once urged by one of his commanders to attack without loss of time, he retorted, “The Army marches on its stomach.” To fight and win wars, men need timely supplies of food and water as much as a supply backup of ammunition and armament, horses and so forth. In short, good planning and logistics support are vital for victory.

Now, our country is engaged in a different kind of war, one against a raging virus. The overnight lockdown of the whole country on the night of March 24 was so sudden that people were left shell shocked. Many daily wage earners who had missed PM Narendra Modi’s television broadcast, or had not grasped the implications of this lockdown, and who ventured out the next morning to work or to buy essentials were mercilessly beaten up by the police.

The decision to impose a total lockdown was a good one and was necessary. The World Health Organisation recommended it, and the heads of other countries have followed suit. That is the only way to stop the spread of the virus. But if the lockdown is to succeed, the supply chain of essential goods and services had to be kept open and running 24x7, and provisions of free cash made to the poor so that people do not defy the orders in search of livelihood.

So, Modi got the first part right -- the need for a lightning-fast response and a firm resolve to fight the war. But for the lockdown to be effective, there was a corollary that his team overlooked -- a well-planned and efficient supply chain and logistics should have been in place well before the lockdown announcement, one facilitated by authorities at every level and extending to the farthest nook and corner of India, keeping in mind that this is a large, chaotic country. Things work in India haphazardly through local, ad hoc ways, enabled by a complex web of millions of service providers who are on daily wages.

While the middle class can observe social distancing and ‘home quarantine’, for the millions of daily wage earners who have to buy their provisions or meal daily and can do so only by going to work each day, it is a cruel joke. For such people, it is physically and economically impossible when they are crammed cheek by jowl, seven to eight in a tin shed in densely crowded slums. The total number of resident slum dwellers and economic migrants put together in the large metros and cities is a staggering 110 million. No government can feed them without adequate planning and preparation. It may not even be desirable to lock them down in such extreme conditions.

In the absence of facilities for food and shelter, with the spectre of hunger staring at them, they fled from their dwellings seeking every which way to reach their villages and spilled out onto highways and bus stands. The heart-rending images of millions of poor, hungry men and women, carrying what they could, with wailing children in tow, are haunting.

While no effort must be spared to stem the spread of the virus, practical solutions that suit India should have been explored and put in place before the imposition of a sudden lockdown. That called for courageous feedback from the advisers to the prime minister, who may have been impatient to enforce the lockdown under counsel from epidemiologists who, in turn, couldn’t have foreseen the fall-out of such a sudden lockdown and the collateral damage it would inflict on the poor. The cure suggested is becoming worse than the disease, as we can all see.

Let me recount a story of another war -- the Bangladesh War of 1971, images of which are still vivid in my mind as I took part in it. In April 1971, Sam Manekshaw, the then army chief, was summoned to an emergency cabinet meeting by Indira Gandhi and asked if the military was ready to attack East Pakistan as millions of refugees were pouring in through Assam, destabilising India. Manekshaw resisted. “I’m not prepared. I fight to win. If I attack now, I will lead my men into defeat.” Indira Gandhi was aghast at the affront by the General. Manekshaw went on, “If I attack now, the mountain passes in the North East Frontier are free of snow and China may attack. The rivers in Bangladesh turn into an ocean with the onset of monsoons, making invasion impossible. Out of my 181 tanks, only 11 are battleworthy. I have to move the ordinance and equipment and fuel and food and ammunition and troops and allied support services to the borders. The IAF and Navy will not be ready to support the attack. I need six months. I will be ready to attack in December. Prime Minister, now give me your orders.”

When he was summoned to her office again that evening, Manekshaw had carried his resignation paper in his pocket and asked her as he went in, “Do you want my resignation?” Indira Gandhi said, “No, because everything you tell me is true.” The rest is history.

When the head of a country calls a cabinet meeting along with the cabinet secretary and other top officials of the government, like the NSA, the head of disaster management, the home secretary, etc., to discuss any momentous decision in the offing, we need people to stand up and speak truth to power. In the present case, they should have advised the prime minister that a meeting with all the chief ministers, followed by meetings with chief secretaries and heads of police in the states were necessary before announcing the lockdown to not only obtain their cooperation but also to get their feedback, which would have helped evolve a well thought out plan on how to implement the lockdown and decide on all aspects of the minimum lifeline of logistics and supply chains.

The political leader may have a larger objective, a daring mission and an overarching vision which others may lack, but let us bear in mind that the head of any country cannot be expected to possess all the knowledge or ability himself to anticipate the fall-out of such measures. The right answers and solutions will always emerge as we have no dearth of capable and knowledgeable people in the government and the country. What we lack are courageous leaders and professionals in the bureaucracy, the police and the military who can speak truth to power.

(The writer pioneered low-cost airlines in India and is a serial entrepreneur)